Retail Sales (MoM)

Retail Sales data published by the US Census Bureau is a leading indicator that gives important information about consumer spending, which has a significant impact on the GDP. Although strong sales figures are likely to boost the USD, external factors, such as weather conditions, could distort the data and paint a misleading picture. In addition to the headline data, changes in the Retail Sales Control Group could trigger a market reaction as it is used to prepare the estimates of Personal Consumption Expenditures for most goods.

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Most recent - Wednesday 15 November 2023 13:30

0.7%

Revised

0.9%

Forecast

-0.3%

Actual

-0.1%

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Thursday 14 December 2023 13:30

-0.1%

Forecast

-0.1%

Actual

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

The consensus forecast for Retail Sales (MoM) is -0.1%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Retail Sales (MoM) was -0.1% against a forecast of -0.3%.

Past events

Date

Forecast

Actual

Wednesday 15 November 2023 13:30

-0.3%

-0.1%

Tuesday 17 October 2023 12:30

0.3%

0.7%

Thursday 14 September 2023 12:30

0.2%

0.6%

Tuesday 15 August 2023 12:30

0.4%

0.7%

Tuesday 18 July 2023 12:30

0.5%

0.2%

Thursday 15 June 2023 12:30

-0.1%

0.3%

Tuesday 16 May 2023 12:30

0.7%

0.4%

Friday 14 April 2023 12:30

-0.4%

-1%

Wednesday 15 March 2023 12:30

-0.3%

-0.4%

Wednesday 15 February 2023 13:30

1.8%

Wednesday 18 January 2023 13:30

-0.8%

-1.1%

Thursday 15 December 2022 13:30

-0.1%

-0.6%

Wednesday 16 November 2022 13:30

1.3%

Friday 14 October 2022 12:30

0.2%

Thursday 15 September 2022 12:30

0.3%

Wednesday 17 August 2022 12:30

0.1%

Friday 15 July 2022 12:30

0.8%

Wednesday 15 June 2022 12:30

0.2%

-0.3%

Tuesday 17 May 2022 12:30

0.7%

0.9%

Thursday 14 April 2022 12:30

0.6%

0.5%

Wednesday 16 March 2022 12:30

0.4%

0.3%

Wednesday 16 February 2022 13:30

3.8%

Friday 14 January 2022 13:30

-1.9%

Wednesday 15 December 2021 13:30

0.8%

0.3%

Tuesday 16 November 2021 13:30

1.4%

1.7%

Friday 15 October 2021 12:30

-0.2%

0.7%

Thursday 16 September 2021 12:30

-0.8%

0.7%

Tuesday 17 August 2021 12:30

-0.3%

-1.1%

Friday 16 July 2021 12:30

-0.4%

0.6%

Tuesday 15 June 2021 12:30

-0.8%

-1.3%

Friday 14 May 2021 12:30

Thursday 15 April 2021 12:30

5.9%

9.8%

Tuesday 16 March 2021 12:30

-0.5%

-3%

Wednesday 17 February 2021 13:30

1.1%

5.3%

Friday 15 January 2021 13:30

-0.7%

Wednesday 16 December 2020 13:30

-0.3%

-1.1%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Retail Sales (MoM) result:

		Previous	Latest
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	Bullish change	61.3	69.4
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation	Bearish change	3.2%	2.8%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	Bullish change	0.2%	0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)	(no change)	4%	4%
Labor Force Participation Rate	Bullish change	62.7%	62.8%
Nonfarm Payrolls	Bullish change	150K	199K
U6 Underemployment Rate	Bullish change	7.2%	7%
Unemployment Rate	Bullish change	3.9%	3.7%
Initial Jobless Claims	Bearish change	218K	220K
Challenger Job Cuts	Bullish change	36.836K	45.51K
Nonfarm Productivity	Bullish change	4.7%	5.2%
Unit Labor Costs	Bearish change	-0.8%	-1.2%
ADP Employment Change	Bearish change	106K	103K
ISM Services Employment Index	Bullish change	50.2	50.7
ISM Services New Orders Index	(no change)	55.5	55.5
ISM Services PMI	Bullish change	51.8	52.7
ISM Services Prices Paid	Bearish change	58.6	58.3
JOLTS Job Openings	Bearish change	9.35M	8.733M
S&P Global Composite PMI	(no change)	50.7	50.7
Factory Orders (MoM)	Bearish change	2.3%	-3.6%
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index	Bearish change	46.8	45.8
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index	Bullish change	45.5	48.3
ISM Manufacturing PMI	(no change)	46.7	46.7
ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid	Bullish change	45.1	49.9
Pending Home Sales (MoM)	Bearish change	1%	-1.5%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index	Bullish change	44	55.8
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)	Bearish change	0.3%	0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)	Bearish change	3.7%	3.5%
Initial Jobless Claims	Bearish change	211K	218K
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)	Bearish change	0.4%	0%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)	Bearish change	3.4%	3%
Personal Income (MoM)	Bearish change	0.4%	0.2%
Personal Spending	Bearish change	0.7%	0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)	Bearish change	2.4%	2.3%
Gross Domestic Product Annualized	Bullish change	4.9%	5.2%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index	(no change)	3.5%	3.5%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)	Bearish change	2.9%	2.8%
Housing Price Index (MoM)	(no change)	0.6%	0.6%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)	Bearish change	8.6%	-5.6%

About Retail Sales (MoM)

Country:	United States
Currency:	USD
Source:	US Census Bureau
Category:	Consumption
Frequency:	Monthly

Related events

	Australia		Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)
	Canada		Retail Sales (MoM)
	China		Retail Sales (YoY)
	Germany		Retail Sales (YoY)
	Eurozone		Retail Sales (YoY)
	New Zealand		Retail Sales (QoQ)
	United States		Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
	United States		Retail Sales Control Group
	Australia		Westpac Consumer Confidence
	Australia		Retail Sales (QoQ)
	Canada		Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)
	Switzerland		Real Retail Sales (YoY)
	Germany		Retail Sales (MoM)
	Germany		Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey
	Eurozone		Consumer Confidence
	Eurozone		Retail Sales (MoM)
	Japan		Large Retailer Sales
	Japan		Overall Household Spending (YoY)
	Japan		Retail Trade s.a (MoM)
	Japan		Retail Trade (YoY)
	New Zealand		ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence
	New Zealand		Retail Sales ex Autos (QoQ)
	New Zealand		Westpac Consumer Survey
	United Kingdom		BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)
	United Kingdom		Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)
	United Kingdom		GfK Consumer Confidence
	United Kingdom		Retail Sales (MoM)
	United Kingdom		Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)
	United Kingdom		Retail Sales (YoY)
	United States		Consumer Confidence
	United States		Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)
	United States		UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation
	United States		Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)
	United States		Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)
	United States		Personal Spending

Calendar - Retail Sales (MoM) - United States

Retail Sales (MoM)

Most recent - Wednesday 15 November 2023 13:30

Next event - Thursday 14 December 2023 13:30

Trading range

Trading range after each Retail Sales (MoM) event

Forecast history

Past events

Economic context

About Retail Sales (MoM)

Related events