

ADP Employment Change

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Hide description Full calendar

Most recent - Wednesday 7 January 2026 13:15

-29K

Revised

-29K

Forecast

47K

Actual

41K

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Next event - Wednesday 4 February 2026 13:15

41K

Forecast

40K

Actual

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

The consensus forecast for ADP Employment Change is 40K. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for ADP Employment Change was 41K against a forecast of 47K.

Past events

Date

Forecast

Actual

Wednesday 7 January 2026 13:15

47K

41K

Wednesday 3 December 2025 13:15

-32K

Wednesday 5 November 2025 13:15

25K

42K

Wednesday 1 October 2025 12:15

50K

-32K

Thursday 4 September 2025 12:15

65K

54K

Wednesday 30 July 2025 12:15

78K

104K

Wednesday 2 July 2025 12:15

95K

-33K

Wednesday 4 June 2025 12:15

115K

37K

Wednesday 30 April 2025 12:15

108K

62K

Wednesday 2 April 2025 12:15

105K

155K

Wednesday 5 March 2025 13:15

140K

77K

Wednesday 5 February 2025 13:15

150K

183K

Wednesday 8 January 2025 13:15

140K

122K

Wednesday 4 December 2024 13:15

150K

146K

Wednesday 30 October 2024 12:15

115K

233K

Wednesday 2 October 2024 12:15

120K

143K

Thursday 5 September 2024 12:15

145K

99K

Wednesday 31 July 2024 12:15

150K

122K

Wednesday 3 July 2024 12:15

160K

150K

Wednesday 5 June 2024 12:15

173K

152K

Wednesday 1 May 2024 12:15

175K

192K

Wednesday 3 April 2024 12:15

148K

184K

Wednesday 6 March 2024 13:15

150K

140K

Wednesday 31 January 2024 13:15

145K

107K

Thursday 4 January 2024 13:15

115K

164K

Wednesday 6 December 2023 13:15

130K

103K

Wednesday 1 November 2023 12:15

150K

113K

Wednesday 4 October 2023 12:15

153K

89K

Wednesday 30 August 2023 12:15

195K

177K

Wednesday 2 August 2023 12:15

189K

324K

Thursday 6 July 2023 12:15

228K

497K

Thursday 1 June 2023 12:15

170K

278K

Wednesday 3 May 2023 12:15

148K

296K

Wednesday 5 April 2023 12:15

200K

145K

Wednesday 8 March 2023 13:15

200K

242K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bullish for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next ADP Employment Change result:

		Previous	Latest
Chicago PMI	Bullish change	43.5	54
Producer Price Index (MoM)	Bullish change	0.2%	0.5%
Producer Price Index (YoY)	(no change)	3%	3%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)	Bullish change	0%	0.7%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)	Bullish change	3%	3.3%
Factory Orders (MoM)	Bullish change	-1.3%	2.7%
Initial Jobless Claims	Bullish change	210K	209K
Nonfarm Productivity	(no change)	4.9%	4.9%
Unit Labor Costs	(no change)	-1.9%	-1.9%
Fed Interest Rate Decision	(no change)	3.75%	3.75%
Housing Price Index (MoM)	Bullish change	0.4%	0.6%
ADP Employment Change 4-week average	Bearish change	8K	7.75K
Durable Goods Orders	Bullish change	-2.1%	5.3%
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense	Bullish change	-1.3%	6.6%
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation	Bullish change	0.1%	0.5%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft	Bullish change	0.3%	0.7%
Michigan Consumer Expectations Index	Bullish change	55	57
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index	Bullish change	54	56.4
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations	Bearish change	4.2%	4%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation	Bearish change	3.4%	3.3%
S&P Global Composite PMI	Bullish change	52.7	52.8
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Bullish change	51.8	51.9
S&P Global Services PMI	(no change)	52.5	52.5
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)	(no change)	0.2%	0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)	Bullish change	2.7%	2.8%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)	(no change)	0.2%	0.2%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)	Bullish change	2.7%	2.8%
Personal Income (MoM)	Bullish change	0.1%	0.3%
Personal Spending	(no change)	0.5%	0.5%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)	(no change)	0.2%	0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)	Bearish change	2.8%	2.7%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)	Bearish change	0.3%	0.2%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)	Bearish change	2.8%	2.7%
Personal Income (MoM)	Bearish change	0.4%	0.1%
Personal Spending	Bullish change	0.3%	0.5%
Initial Jobless Claims	Bearish change	199K	200K
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)	(no change)	2.9%	2.9%
Gross Domestic Product Annualized	Bullish change	4.3%	4.4%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index	(no change)	3.7%	3.7%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)	(no change)	2.8%	2.8%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)	Bearish change	3.3%	-9.3%
ADP Employment Change 4-week average	Bearish change	11.25K	8K

About ADP Employment Change

Country:	United States
Currency:	USD
Source:	ADP Research Institute
Category:	Labor Market
Frequency:	Monthly

Related events

	Australia		Unemployment Rate s.a.
	Australia		Employment Change s.a.
	Canada		Unemployment Rate
	Canada		Net Change in Employment
	New Zealand		Unemployment Rate
	New Zealand		Employment Change
	United Kingdom		Employment Change
	United Kingdom		ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)
	United Kingdom		Claimant Count Change
	United States		Nonfarm Payrolls
	United States		Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision
	United States		Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
	United States		Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)
	Australia		Wage Price Index (QoQ)
	Australia		Part-Time Employment
	Australia		Participation Rate
	Australia		Full-Time Employment
	Canada		Average Hourly Wages (YoY)
	Germany		Unemployment Change
	Germany		Unemployment Rate s.a.
	Eurozone		Unemployment Rate
	Eurozone		Employment Change (QoQ)
	Japan		Labor Cash Earnings (YoY)
	Japan		Unemployment Rate
	New Zealand		Participation Rate
	New Zealand		Labour Cost Index (QoQ)
	United Kingdom		Claimant Count Rate
	United Kingdom		Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)
	United Kingdom		Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)
	United States		ISM Manufacturing Employment Index
	United States		Unit Labor Costs
	United States		ADP Employment Change 4-week average
	United States		Personal Income (MoM)
	United States		ISM Services Employment Index
	United States		Unemployment Rate
	United States		Nonfarm Productivity
	United States		JOLTS Job Openings
	United States		Initial Jobless Claims
	United States		Challenger Job Cuts
	United States		Labor Force Participation Rate
	United States		U6 Underemployment Rate
	United States		Employment Cost Index

The terms and conditions of use set out below (referred to as "FX Blue's Terms"), form a contractual agreement governing FX Blue's relationship with you in relation to your use of this Website (“Agreement”) and you agree to be legally bound by FX Blue's Terms just as if you had signed this Agreement. By using this Website and any Information, you are agreeing to comply with and be bound by FX Blue's Terms, including any revisions that may be made to FX Blue's Terms from time to time. FX Blue reserves the right, in FX Blue's sole discretion, to change, modify, add or remove portions of FX Blue's Terms at any time by posting the revisions on the Website. You should check FX Blue's Terms periodically for changes as by using the Website after FX Blue posts any changes to FX Blue's Terms, you are agreeing to accept those changes, whether or not you have reviewed them, and you waive any right you may have to receive individualised notice of such changes. FX Blue's Terms may be supplemented by additional terms and conditions pertaining to specific content and activities. You agree and understand that such additional terms and conditions are hereby incorporated by reference to FX Blue's Terms. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified FX Blue Terms.

ADP Employment Change

Most recent - Wednesday 7 January 2026 13:15

Next event - Wednesday 4 February 2026 13:15

Trading range

Trading range after each ADP Employment Change event

Forecast history

Past events

Economic context

About ADP Employment Change

Related events