ADP Employment Change

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Most recent - Wednesday 5 June 2024 12:15

Previous
188K
Revised
188K
Forecast
173K
Actual
152K

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Next event - Wednesday 3 July 2024 12:15

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for ADP Employment Change yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for ADP Employment Change was 152K against a forecast of 173K.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 5 June 2024 12:15
173K
152K
Wednesday 1 May 2024 12:15
175K
192K
Wednesday 3 April 2024 12:15
148K
184K
Wednesday 6 March 2024 13:15
150K
140K
Wednesday 31 January 2024 13:15
145K
107K
Thursday 4 January 2024 13:15
115K
164K
Wednesday 6 December 2023 13:15
130K
103K
Wednesday 1 November 2023 12:15
150K
113K
Wednesday 4 October 2023 12:15
153K
89K
Wednesday 30 August 2023 12:15
195K
177K
Wednesday 2 August 2023 12:15
189K
324K
Thursday 6 July 2023 12:15
228K
497K
Thursday 1 June 2023 12:15
170K
278K
Wednesday 3 May 2023 12:15
148K
296K
Wednesday 5 April 2023 12:15
200K
145K
Wednesday 8 March 2023 13:15
200K
242K
Wednesday 1 February 2023 13:15
178K
106K
Thursday 5 January 2023 13:15
150K
235K
Wednesday 30 November 2022 13:15
200K
127K
Wednesday 2 November 2022 12:15
195K
239K
Wednesday 5 October 2022 12:15
200K
208K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
288K
132K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
-
270K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
-
380K
Thursday 2 June 2022 12:15
300K
128K
Wednesday 4 May 2022 12:15
395K
247K
Wednesday 30 March 2022 12:15
450K
455K
Wednesday 2 March 2022 13:15
388K
475K
Wednesday 2 February 2022 13:15
207K
-301K
Wednesday 5 January 2022 13:15
400K
807K
Wednesday 1 December 2021 13:15
525K
534K
Wednesday 3 November 2021 12:15
400K
571K
Wednesday 6 October 2021 12:15
428K
568K
Wednesday 1 September 2021 12:15
613K
374K
Wednesday 4 August 2021 12:15
695K
330K
Wednesday 30 June 2021 12:15
600K
692K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next ADP Employment Change result:

PreviousLatest
NY Empire State Manufacturing IndexBullish change-15.6-6
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change69.165.6
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBullish change3%3.1%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change229K242K
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.5%-0.2%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change2.3%2.2%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bearish change0.5%0%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bearish change2.4%2.3%
Monthly Budget StatementBearish change$209.5B$-347B
Fed Interest Rate Decision(no change)5.5%5.5%
Interest Rate Projections - 1st yearBullish change3.9%4.1%
Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year(no change)3.1%3.1%
Interest Rate Projections - CurrentBullish change4.6%5.1%
Interest Rate Projections - LongerBullish change2.6%2.8%
Consumer Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3.4%3.3%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bearish change3.6%3.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bullish change4%4.1%
Labor Force Participation RateBearish change62.7%62.5%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change165K272K
U6 Underemployment Rate(no change)7.4%7.4%
Unemployment RateBearish change3.9%4%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change221K229K
Nonfarm ProductivityBearish change0.3%0.2%
Unit Labor CostsBearish change4.7%4%
Challenger Job CutsBearish change64.789K63.816K
ISM Services Employment IndexBullish change45.947.1
ISM Services New Orders IndexBullish change52.254.1
ISM Services PMIBullish change49.453.8
ISM Services Prices PaidBearish change59.258.1
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change54.454.5
Factory Orders (MoM)(no change)0.7%0.7%
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change8.355M8.059M
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change48.651.1
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBearish change49.145.4
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change49.248.7
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change60.957

About ADP Employment Change

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:ADP Research Institute
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
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