ADP Employment Change

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Most recent - Wednesday 1 July 2026 12:15

Previous
122K
Revised
-
Forecast
113K
Actual
98K

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for ADP Employment Change was 98K against a forecast of 113K.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 1 July 2026 12:15
113K
98K
Wednesday 3 June 2026 12:15
117K
122K
Wednesday 6 May 2026 12:15
99K
109K
Wednesday 1 April 2026 12:15
40K
62K
Wednesday 4 March 2026 13:15
50K
63K
Wednesday 4 February 2026 13:15
48K
22K
Wednesday 7 January 2026 13:15
47K
41K
Wednesday 3 December 2025 13:15
5K
-32K
Wednesday 5 November 2025 13:15
25K
42K
Wednesday 1 October 2025 12:15
50K
-32K
Thursday 4 September 2025 12:15
65K
54K
Wednesday 30 July 2025 12:15
78K
104K
Wednesday 2 July 2025 12:15
95K
-33K
Wednesday 4 June 2025 12:15
115K
37K
Wednesday 30 April 2025 12:15
108K
62K
Wednesday 2 April 2025 12:15
105K
155K
Wednesday 5 March 2025 13:15
140K
77K
Wednesday 5 February 2025 13:15
150K
183K
Wednesday 8 January 2025 13:15
140K
122K
Wednesday 4 December 2024 13:15
150K
146K
Wednesday 30 October 2024 12:15
115K
233K
Wednesday 2 October 2024 12:15
120K
143K
Thursday 5 September 2024 12:15
145K
99K
Wednesday 31 July 2024 12:15
150K
122K
Wednesday 3 July 2024 12:15
160K
150K
Wednesday 5 June 2024 12:15
173K
152K
Wednesday 1 May 2024 12:15
175K
192K
Wednesday 3 April 2024 12:15
148K
184K
Wednesday 6 March 2024 13:15
150K
140K
Wednesday 31 January 2024 13:15
145K
107K
Thursday 4 January 2024 13:15
115K
164K
Wednesday 6 December 2023 13:15
130K
103K
Wednesday 1 November 2023 12:15
150K
113K
Wednesday 4 October 2023 12:15
153K
89K
Wednesday 30 August 2023 12:15
195K
177K
Wednesday 2 August 2023 12:15
189K
324K
Thursday 6 July 2023 12:15
228K
497K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next ADP Employment Change result:

PreviousLatest
Factory Orders (MoM)Bearish change5.3%-1.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)(no change)0.3%0.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bullish change3.4%3.5%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change216K215K
Labor Force Participation RateBearish change61.8%61.5%
Nonfarm PayrollsBearish change129K57K
U6 Underemployment RateBullish change8.1%7.9%
Unemployment RateBullish change4.3%4.2%
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change48.649.7
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBearish change56.856
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change5453.3
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change82.173
Challenger Job CutsBearish change97.006K45.849K
JOLTS Job OpeningsBullish change7.585M7.594M
Chicago PMIBearish change62.756.7
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.2%-0.1%
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBullish change49.350.7
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change48.949.5
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations(no change)4.6%4.6%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.4%3.3%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.3%0.3%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change3.3%3.4%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(no change)4.4%4.4%
Durable Goods OrdersBearish change8.5%-4.5%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBearish change8.4%-4.6%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change1.4%1.3%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change1.6%2.1%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBullish change3.5%3.6%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change227K215K
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change-0.7%1.6%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.4%0.4%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change3.8%4.1%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bullish change4.5%4.6%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change0%0.7%
Personal SpendingBullish change0.4%0.7%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change-5.7%-7.3%
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change51.552.2
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBullish change55.155.7
S&P Global Services PMIBullish change50.751.3
ADP Employment Change 4-week averageBullish change26.5K30.75K

About ADP Employment Change

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:ADP Research Institute
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
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