Market Analysis
On July 4, strong U.S. jobs data boosts the dollar, but Trump’s tariff warning sparks trade uncertainty. USD/CAD dips near 1.3600 as oil rebounds; AUD/USD slips below 0.6650. NZD/USD holds near 0.6050, GBP/USD steadies at 1.3650, and USD/CNY stays firm as PBOC signals caution. Markets eye ISM data and tariff updates for next moves.
By EBC
The Hang Seng index fell over 1% on Thursday after Wall Street hit a new peak. Trump announced the US-Vietnam trade deal.
On July 3, silver stays firm above $35.40 as Fed cut bets persist. EUR/USD holds near 1.1800, while GBP/USD lingers near 1.3585 ahead of UK jobs data. JPY strengthens after BoJ signals a hawkish pause. AUD/USD slips on weak trade surplus. Focus turns to US NFP and ISM data for market direction before the US holiday break.
By EBC
Trump's unstable tariff policy accelerates EU economic recovery, with increased investment inflows and ECB rate cuts stimulating growth.
By EBC
Indonesia’s nickel permit revocations in Raja Ampat raise ESG concerns and market risks—EBC analyses the impact on supply, prices, and policy credibility.
On July 2, the USD stabilizes as Fed rate cut bets build. GBP/USD nears 1.3750 highs, NZD/USD extends above 0.6120, and AUD/USD holds near 0.6820 despite soft retail sales. USD/JPY recovers to 146.20, while silver dips below $36. Markets await US labor data and Fed remarks for direction ahead of July 4.
By EBC
The yen steadied Wednesday as the dollar hovered near a 3-year low. The BOJ grows concerned over mixed inflation and weak consumer demand.
By EBC
EBC wins Best CFD Provider at the 2025 Online Money Awards, marking our first recognition for innovation, execution, and trader-first product design.
WTI dips below $64.50 as Middle East tensions ease, dampening supply fears. Silver struggles under $36, while AUD and NZD stay muted on weak China PMI. USD/JPY steadies near 145.90, and the yen holds gains on USD weakness. Traders now eye US ISM PMI and Fed minutes for clues on policy and market direction.
By EBC
EBC wins Most Trusted Broker and Best Trading Platform at the World Finance Forex Awards 2025, marking a third consecutive year of global industry recognition.
By Naga
Global markets found some calm last week as Iran-Israel tensions cooled off, dialing down the geopolitical risk. With the heat dying down, traders turned their eyes to PMI data and end-of-month moves.
By FP Markets
The week ahead welcomes a slew of key US employment metrics, which may further increase the odds of additional cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. This includes May JOLTS job openings, June ADP employment change (Automatic Data Processing), weekly jobless filings for the week ending 28 June, and, of course, the June jobs report, which will be released on Thursday due to US markets closing in observance of Independence Day.
By EBC
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reached all-time highs on Friday, fueled by renewed AI enthusiasm and expectations of looser monetary policy.
Gold dips toward $3,250 as risk sentiment improves and safe-haven demand fades. EUR/USD and GBP/USD stay firm above 1.1700 and 1.3700, while USD/CAD weakens to 1.3650 on rising oil and trade hopes. Trump's renewed Fed criticism shakes USD sentiment ahead of key inflation and GDP data this week.
By Octa
WTI Oil remains flat near $65 after its worst week in years.
The ceasefire in the Middle East has triggered a $12 sell-off on WTI prices.
The weak global economic outlook, coupled with expectations of supply hikes, is weighing on Crude.
By EBC
Australia's economic growth slows, with May consumer prices at a three-and-a-half-year low and rate cut expectations rising.
By EBC
Oil was set to trim gains as Middle East risks eased, but prices rose Friday due to higher US fuel demand during the summer driving season.
WTI crude nears $75 on strong US inventory draw, boosting risk sentiment. The US Dollar remains weak amid Fed independence fears, lifting AUD/USD to 0.6880 and EUR/USD near 1.1700. USD/JPY retreats while USD/CNY stays steady on a firmer PBOC fix. Focus shifts to US PCE data and global central bank commentary.
By EBC
The Chinese yuan hit its highest level since November 2024, amid concerns over the Fed's independence and U.S. monetary policy.
The US Dollar plunges to 3-year lows on June 26 amid concerns over Fed independence. Gold climbs near $3,360, GBP/USD hits multi-year highs above 1.3700, and EUR/JPY nears an 11-month peak. Risk pairs like AUD/JPY stay firm, while USD/INR remains volatile. Focus turns to Fed commentary and US inflation data for direction.
By EBC
US stocks surged over 1% on Tuesday after a fragile Israel-Iran truce, with Fed Chair Powell's testimony on the central bank's future in focus.
WTI dips below $65 as the Israel-Iran ceasefire eases supply fears. Gold slips under $3,350 while silver holds near $36. Risk-on sentiment lifts AUD/USD to 0.6850 and keeps GBP/USD above 1.3600. Focus shifts to US GDP, inflation data, and oil inventories for the next market move.
By EBC
Oil prices dropped to a one-week low on Tuesday after Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, easing concerns over supply disruption.
On June 24, 2025, a surprise Israel-Iran ceasefire sparks a global risk rally. The US Dollar dips below 98.50, silver steadies near $36.00, and AUD/USD climbs to 0.6825. USD/JPY drops below 145.60, and crude oil plunges to $65.00. Market focus shifts to US confidence data, China signals, and Fed policy outlook.
Markets remain mixed as gold dips to $3,355.60 and silver pauses near $36.00 amid a firm USD. GBP rebounds on stable UK data, while the yen weakens, pushing USD/JPY higher. Traders watch US Consumer Confidence, Canada Retail Sales, and tariff updates for fresh direction.
By FP Markets
‘Wait and see’ seems to be the dominant sentiment for both US President Donald Trump and the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
By EBC
Rising demand for gold as a safe haven has driven a 30% increase this year, surpassing traditional assets like the yen and Swiss franc.
By LiteFinance
Author Dmitri Demidenko, reviewed by Jana Kane
The United States is a net exporter of energy commodities. Rising oil prices are beneficial to the US dollar, and Donald Trump's decision not to strike Iran for two weeks has led to a de-escalation of the conflict. Let's discuss these topics and make a trading plan for the EURUSD pair.
By Octa
After briefly exceeding $3,400 per troy ounce, the Gold price stabilised just below this level, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.
By VT Markets
Key Points
- S&P 500 futures decline after Fed holds rates, signals two 2025 cuts
- Markets unsettled as Trump mulls possible military strike on Iran
By FP Markets
Good morning, everyone,
While attacks from both sides in the Israel-Iran conflict continued overnight, US President Donald Trump, like the US Federal Reserve, appears to have adopted a ‘wait-and-see’ stance for now in terms of whether the US will get involved.
According to a statement from the President, relayed by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt: ‘Based on the fact that there is a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks’.
Leavitt emphasised that any diplomatic agreement must guarantee that Iran cannot enrich uranium or develop a nuclear weapon.
A two-week window for diplomacy?
Despite earlier gains, Brent Crude prices have fallen around 2.0% today amid the two-week window offered by Trump regarding the Israel-Iran situation, essentially leaving the door open for a diplomatic resolution to avert major escalation.
Additionally, the UK and European counterparts are heading to Geneva today for talks with Iran to press for a diplomatic solution. The big question, of course, is whether this meeting will be enough to sway Trump. How these talks will change the direction of the narrative we are currently on is a tricky one to answer, I believe. However, they may provide a clearer ‘general level’ of understanding about where Iran is positioned.
Another point to consider is that the two-week window remains somewhat arbitrary; we do not have a fixed date, and let’s be frank, Trump has used the ‘two-week’ phrase on several occasions in the past. Beyond this, it remains uncertain.
BoE holds steady, but vote split takes a dovish tilt
In a more divided vote than expected, the Bank of England (BoE) maintained the bank rate at 4.25% amid geopolitical uncertainty yesterday. The decision to hold, along with the central bank’s ongoing commitment to a ‘careful and gradual’ approach, raised very few eyebrows.
Despite this, markets are pricing in an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point (bp) cut at August’s meeting. However, this is by no means certain; I feel that things can shift before then. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey commented that he ‘expects that the path of interest rates will continue to be gradually downwards’. Nevertheless, he cautioned that he was not providing a ‘prediction for August by saying that’.
Six out of the nine Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members voted to leave the rate unchanged, while Swati Dhingra, Dave Ramsden and Alan Taylor voted to reduce the bank rate by 25 bps, to 4.00%. This was more divided than the market had expected; Refinitiv data indicated a 7-2 vote.
The move to hold rates comes despite considerable disinflation over the past two years, from a peak of 11.1% in October 2022 to 3.4% in May 2025 based on a year-on-year measure. The MPC noted that UK GDP growth (Gross Domestic Product) remains weak and the labour market continues to loosen. While pay growth is moderating and expected to slow further, inflation, as noted above, increased in May, primarily due to regulated prices and past increases in energy costs. Inflation is expected to remain at current levels for the remainder of the year, before gradually falling back towards the 2.0% target in 2026.
Despite progress, the MPC is keeping a close eye on elevated global uncertainty, particularly rising energy prices stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. The MPC stressed that monetary policy is not on a preset path and will continue to be restrictive to squeeze out persistent inflationary pressures.
Aside from UK retail sales data, which dropped in the last hour, the upcoming docket is reasonably light in terms of tier-1 events. UK retail sales numbers experienced a considerable drop, falling 2.7% in May – marking the largest decline since late 2023 – and reversing a 1.3% gain seen in April. Food stores’ sales volume saw a notable decrease, dropping 5.0%, as shown in the table below, down from a 4.7% gain, which was its largest monthly decline since mid-2021.
I am still closely watching the daily resistance between £0.8567 and £0.8546 on the EUR/GBP (euro versus the British pound) for a potential breakout move higher. While bears made a show yesterday, I feel that the said resistance remains in a vulnerable position, as I briefly described yesterday:
The EUR/GBP is currently trading at daily resistance between £0.8567 and £0.8546, an area complemented by monthly trendline resistance, drawn from the high of £0.9504. The caveat here is the lack of follow-through selling beyond monthly support at £0.8229-£0.8315, which signals buyers could be gaining strength. With that said, a breakout beyond the daily resistance zone underlined above could trigger a move towards daily resistance at £0.8616.
Charts created using Trading View
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron HillBy FXPro
The US dollar has managed to recover, backed by the Middle East conflict. Until now, all the troubles for the global economy originated in America, from trade tariffs to the US fiscal problems that undermined confidence in the greenback and deprived it of its status as the main safe-haven currency.
By Naga
Choppy markets. Big moves. High stakes.
Geopolitical shockwaves hit this week as Israeli strikes on Iran spiked oil and gold prices. Equities flinched but held their ground — with the S&P 500 shaking off midweek jitters, thanks to strong U.S. data and tech’s relentless momentum.
By EBC
Oil prices fell Friday despite no sign of de-escalation between Israel and Iran. Israel's defence minister said Khamenei "cannot continue to exist."
By EBC
The Nikkei 225 fell Thursday as possible U.S. support for Israel's Iran strike and rising oil and yen added pressure on Japanese firms.
By EBC
EBC flags 4 asymmetric risks as markets cheer soft May CPI; core inflation, tariffs, dollar weakness, and labour data could derail rate cut hopes.
By EBC
The Australian dollar rose moderately Wednesday after a US-UK deal boosted trade hopes, though Iran-Israel tensions capped its gains.
By EBC
Israel's intensified strikes on Iran escalated Middle East tensions, drove up oil prices, and raised concerns over global energy supply stability.
By EBC
EBC and United to Beat Malaria link climate, finance, and health to fight malaria and plastic pollution with global action and smart investment.
By EBC
David Barrett, CEO of EBC Financial Group (UK) Ltd, urges lower leverage and smart gold allocation amid rising risks and shifting inflation in 2025.
By EBC
The Stoxx 50 gained nearly 1% on Monday as risk sentiment improved. EU and US remain in technical and political talks over ongoing trade tensions.
By Pepperstone
It feels premature to give on the well-subscribed ‘buy the dip’ mantra just yet, but there are clear reasons to trim back on risk exposures or to layer on portfolio hedges - either through short equity index positions (to offset core portfolio longs), increasing gold longs or buying volatility.
by Chris Weston - Head of Research
By LiteFinance
I welcome my fellow traders! I have made a price forecast for USCrude, XAUUSD, and EURUSD using a combination of margin zones methodology and technical analysis. Based on the market analysis, I suggest entry signals for intraday traders.
Last week, the euro tested the support (A) during a correction.
By EBC
The yen edged lower Monday as safe-haven flows lifted the dollar amid Israel-Iran conflict fears and surging energy prices hurting Japan's economy.
By EBC
As the decline of US dollar hegemony intensifies, US-China trade tensions ease but tariffs stay high, raising global economic risks.
By EBC
London's FTSE 100 hit an all-time high on Thursday, led by energy shares, but geopolitical concerns limited further gains compared to European peers.
By Deriv
The US stock market is now 50% larger than the bond market, a gap we haven’t seen since the 1970s. And quietly sitting near the centre of it all? Alphabet and Tesla, two familiar names navigating an AI-fuelled moment that’s reshaping the investing landscape.
By EBC
CPI Report May 2025 shows weaker inflation, raising rate cut hopes. Markets stay cautious as tariff effects and Fed policy outlook remain uncertain.
By EBC
Indonesia’s Yuan pact with China signals a bold shift in trade, finance, and policy—EBC explores its impact on sovereignty and ASEAN leadership.
The terms and conditions of use set out below (referred to as "FX Blue's Terms"), form a contractual agreement governing FX Blue's relationship with you in relation to your use of this Website (“Agreement”) and you agree to be legally bound by FX Blue's Terms just as if you had signed this Agreement. By using this Website and any Information, you are agreeing to comply with and be bound by FX Blue's Terms, including any revisions that may be made to FX Blue's Terms from time to time. FX Blue reserves the right, in FX Blue's sole discretion, to change, modify, add or remove portions of FX Blue's Terms at any time by posting the revisions on the Website. You should check FX Blue's Terms periodically for changes as by using the Website after FX Blue posts any changes to FX Blue's Terms, you are agreeing to accept those changes, whether or not you have reviewed them, and you waive any right you may have to receive individualised notice of such changes. FX Blue's Terms may be supplemented by additional terms and conditions pertaining to specific content and activities. You agree and understand that such additional terms and conditions are hereby incorporated by reference to FX Blue's Terms. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified FX Blue Terms.