Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a percentage that surges from dividing the number of unemployed workers by the total civilian labor force. It represents the percentage of people actively seeking employment and willing to work. Usually, as a higher rate is seen in recessionary economies, while on the ​contrary, a growing economy sees its unemployment rate decreasing. Therefore, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish), although by itself, the number can't determinate the markets move as it depends on the headline reading, the Nonfarm Payroll.

Most recent - Friday 7 March 2025 13:30

Previous
4%
Revised
-
Forecast
4%
Actual
4.1%

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Next event - Friday 4 April 2025 12:30

Previous
4.1%
Forecast
4.1%
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is medium.

The consensus forecast for Unemployment Rate is 4.1%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Unemployment Rate was 4.1% against a forecast of 4%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Friday 7 March 2025 13:30
4%
4.1%
Friday 7 February 2025 13:30
4.1%
4%
Friday 10 January 2025 13:30
4.2%
4.1%
Friday 6 December 2024 13:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 1 November 2024 12:30
4.1%
4.1%
Friday 4 October 2024 12:30
4.2%
4.1%
Friday 6 September 2024 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 2 August 2024 12:30
4.1%
4.3%
Friday 5 July 2024 12:30
4%
4.1%
Friday 7 June 2024 12:30
3.9%
4%
Friday 3 May 2024 12:30
3.8%
3.9%
Friday 5 April 2024 12:30
3.9%
3.8%
Friday 8 March 2024 13:30
3.7%
3.9%
Friday 2 February 2024 13:30
3.8%
3.7%
Friday 5 January 2024 13:30
3.8%
3.7%
Friday 8 December 2023 13:30
3.9%
3.7%
Friday 3 November 2023 12:30
3.8%
3.9%
Friday 6 October 2023 12:30
3.7%
3.8%
Friday 1 September 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.8%
Friday 4 August 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.5%
Friday 7 July 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.6%
Friday 2 June 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.7%
Friday 5 May 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.4%
Friday 7 April 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.5%
Friday 10 March 2023 13:30
3.4%
3.6%
Friday 3 February 2023 13:30
3.6%
3.4%
Friday 6 January 2023 13:30
3.7%
3.5%
Friday 2 December 2022 13:30
3.7%
3.7%
Friday 4 November 2022 12:30
3.6%
3.7%
Friday 7 October 2022 12:30
3.7%
3.5%
Friday 2 September 2022 12:30
3.5%
3.7%
Friday 5 August 2022 12:30
3.6%
3.5%
Friday 8 July 2022 12:30
3.6%
3.6%
Friday 3 June 2022 12:30
3.5%
3.6%
Friday 6 May 2022 12:30
3.5%
3.6%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Unemployment Rate result:

PreviousLatest
Factory Orders (MoM)Bearish change1.8%0.6%
ADP Employment ChangeBullish change84K155K
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBearish change47.644.7
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBearish change48.645.2
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change50.349
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBullish change62.469.4
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change7.762M7.568M
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBullish change45.547.6
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change57.957
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBullish change3.9%4.1%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.3%0.4%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.7%2.8%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.3%0.3%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(no change)2.5%2.5%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change0.7%0.8%
Personal SpendingBullish change-0.3%0.4%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change-4.6%2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bearish change2.7%2.6%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBullish change2.3%2.4%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBearish change2.4%2.3%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change225K224K
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(no change)2.4%2.4%
Durable Goods OrdersBearish change3.3%0.9%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBearish change3.7%0.8%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBullish change0.1%0.7%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBearish change0.9%-0.3%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-6.9%1.8%
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.5%0.2%
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change51.653.5
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBearish change52.749.8
S&P Global Services PMIBullish change5154.3
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-4.7%4.2%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change220K223K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing SurveyBearish change18.112.5

About Unemployment Rate

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
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