Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the most potent regular event in the economic calendar, with prices often moving by over 100 pips in a few minutes. The health of the US labor market affects decisions of the Federal Reserve, which in turn move exchange rates. The expected/forecast value of NFP is usually priced in to markets, and what they mainly react to is the "surprise factor": any difference from expectation/forecast, rather than the change since the previous month. A rise in Nonfarm Payrolls is usually bullish for the US dollar: USD/JPY and USD/CAD rise, EUR/USD and GBP/USD fall. A worse than expected result has the opposite effect.

Most recent - Friday 7 June 2024 12:30

Previous
165K
Revised
165K
Forecast
185K
Actual
272K

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Friday 5 July 2024 12:30

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for Nonfarm Payrolls yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

How should I trade NFP?

With caution! The market reaction to Nonfarm Payrolls is often substantial and immediate. You may get considerable slippage on orders, or your broker may requote (depending on the type of execution).

One strategy is to place buy and sell stop orders either side of the current price, for example at 20 pips, in the expectation of a decisive move in one direction through and far beyond one of the orders. But such orders may still experience slippage, and any such strategy is at risk of a change in market sentiment and an equally rapid reversal.

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Nonfarm Payrolls was 272K against a forecast of 185K.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Friday 7 June 2024 12:30
185K
272K
Friday 3 May 2024 12:30
243K
175K
Friday 5 April 2024 12:30
200K
303K
Friday 8 March 2024 13:30
200K
275K
Friday 2 February 2024 13:30
180K
353K
Friday 5 January 2024 13:30
170K
216K
Friday 8 December 2023 13:30
180K
199K
Friday 3 November 2023 12:30
180K
150K
Friday 6 October 2023 12:30
170K
336K
Friday 1 September 2023 12:30
170K
187K
Friday 4 August 2023 12:30
200K
187K
Friday 7 July 2023 12:30
225K
209K
Friday 2 June 2023 12:30
190K
339K
Friday 5 May 2023 12:30
179K
253K
Friday 7 April 2023 12:30
240K
236K
Friday 10 March 2023 13:30
205K
311K
Friday 3 February 2023 13:30
185K
517K
Friday 6 January 2023 13:30
200K
223K
Friday 2 December 2022 13:30
200K
263K
Friday 4 November 2022 12:30
200K
261K
Friday 7 October 2022 12:30
250K
263K
Friday 2 September 2022 12:30
300K
315K
Friday 5 August 2022 12:30
250K
528K
Friday 8 July 2022 12:30
268K
372K
Friday 3 June 2022 12:30
325K
390K
Friday 6 May 2022 12:30
391K
428K
Friday 1 April 2022 12:30
490K
431K
Friday 4 March 2022 13:30
400K
678K
Friday 4 February 2022 13:30
150K
467K
Friday 7 January 2022 13:30
400K
199K
Friday 3 December 2021 13:30
550K
210K
Friday 5 November 2021 12:30
425K
531K
Friday 8 October 2021 12:30
500K
194K
Friday 3 September 2021 12:30
750K
235K
Friday 6 August 2021 12:30
870K
943K
Friday 2 July 2021 12:30
700K
850K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Nonfarm Payrolls result:

PreviousLatest
NY Empire State Manufacturing IndexBullish change-15.6-6
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change69.165.6
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBullish change3%3.1%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change229K242K
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.5%-0.2%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change2.3%2.2%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bearish change0.5%0%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bearish change2.4%2.3%
Monthly Budget StatementBearish change$209.5B$-347B
Fed Interest Rate Decision(no change)5.5%5.5%
Interest Rate Projections - 1st yearBullish change3.9%4.1%
Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year(no change)3.1%3.1%
Interest Rate Projections - CurrentBullish change4.6%5.1%
Interest Rate Projections - LongerBullish change2.6%2.8%
Consumer Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3.4%3.3%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bearish change3.6%3.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bullish change4%4.1%
Labor Force Participation RateBearish change62.7%62.5%
U6 Underemployment Rate(no change)7.4%7.4%
Unemployment RateBearish change3.9%4%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change221K229K
Nonfarm ProductivityBearish change0.3%0.2%
Unit Labor CostsBearish change4.7%4%
Challenger Job CutsBearish change64.789K63.816K
ISM Services Employment IndexBullish change45.947.1
ISM Services New Orders IndexBullish change52.254.1
ISM Services PMIBullish change49.453.8
ISM Services Prices PaidBearish change59.258.1
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change54.454.5
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change188K152K
Factory Orders (MoM)(no change)0.7%0.7%
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change8.355M8.059M
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change48.651.1
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBearish change49.145.4
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change49.248.7
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change60.957

About Nonfarm Payrolls

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Usually the 1st Friday of the month, but sometimes the 2nd Friday
Continue to site >

Personal Trade Copier

Trade Mirror

Trading Simulator

Figaro App Suite

Publisher EA

Figaro Connector EA

All Trader Downloads

All Developer Downloads

Currency Strength

Trader Sentiment

Price Alerts

Mini Charts

Premium Charting

Market Scanner

All Tools

Next High Impact Events

Week View

Next 24 Hours

Session Map

Chart View

Future Events

Past Events

Big Market Movers

Compare Brokers

Broker Offers

Market Analysis

Price Action News

Broker News

Example Analysis

Widgets

FAQ

Statement

Stats

Risk analysis

Widgets

Portfolio

FAQ

Please Log In
Not yet a user?