Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the most potent regular event in the economic calendar, with prices often moving by over 100 pips in a few minutes. The health of the US labor market affects decisions of the Federal Reserve, which in turn move exchange rates. The expected/forecast value of NFP is usually priced in to markets, and what they mainly react to is the "surprise factor": any difference from expectation/forecast, rather than the change since the previous month. A rise in Nonfarm Payrolls is usually bullish for the US dollar: USD/JPY and USD/CAD rise, EUR/USD and GBP/USD fall. A worse than expected result has the opposite effect.

Next event - Friday 4 October 2024 12:30

Previous
142K
Forecast
140K
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

The consensus forecast for Nonfarm Payrolls is 140K. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Most recent - Friday 6 September 2024 12:30

Previous
89K
Revised
89K
Forecast
160K
Actual
142K

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Trading range

How should I trade NFP?

With caution! The market reaction to Nonfarm Payrolls is often substantial and immediate. You may get considerable slippage on orders, or your broker may requote (depending on the type of execution).

One strategy is to place buy and sell stop orders either side of the current price, for example at 20 pips, in the expectation of a decisive move in one direction through and far beyond one of the orders. But such orders may still experience slippage, and any such strategy is at risk of a change in market sentiment and an equally rapid reversal.

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Nonfarm Payrolls was 142K against a forecast of 160K.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Friday 6 September 2024 12:30
160K
142K
Friday 2 August 2024 12:30
175K
114K
Friday 5 July 2024 12:30
190K
206K
Friday 7 June 2024 12:30
185K
272K
Friday 3 May 2024 12:30
243K
175K
Friday 5 April 2024 12:30
200K
303K
Friday 8 March 2024 13:30
200K
275K
Friday 2 February 2024 13:30
180K
353K
Friday 5 January 2024 13:30
170K
216K
Friday 8 December 2023 13:30
180K
199K
Friday 3 November 2023 12:30
180K
150K
Friday 6 October 2023 12:30
170K
336K
Friday 1 September 2023 12:30
170K
187K
Friday 4 August 2023 12:30
200K
187K
Friday 7 July 2023 12:30
225K
209K
Friday 2 June 2023 12:30
190K
339K
Friday 5 May 2023 12:30
179K
253K
Friday 7 April 2023 12:30
240K
236K
Friday 10 March 2023 13:30
205K
311K
Friday 3 February 2023 13:30
185K
517K
Friday 6 January 2023 13:30
200K
223K
Friday 2 December 2022 13:30
200K
263K
Friday 4 November 2022 12:30
200K
261K
Friday 7 October 2022 12:30
250K
263K
Friday 2 September 2022 12:30
300K
315K
Friday 5 August 2022 12:30
250K
528K
Friday 8 July 2022 12:30
268K
372K
Friday 3 June 2022 12:30
325K
390K
Friday 6 May 2022 12:30
391K
428K
Friday 1 April 2022 12:30
490K
431K
Friday 4 March 2022 13:30
400K
678K
Friday 4 February 2022 13:30
150K
467K
Friday 7 January 2022 13:30
400K
199K
Friday 3 December 2021 13:30
550K
210K
Friday 5 November 2021 12:30
425K
531K
Friday 8 October 2021 12:30
500K
194K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Nonfarm Payrolls result:

PreviousLatest
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change219K225K
Challenger Job CutsBearish change75.891K72.821K
ADP Employment ChangeBullish change103K143K
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBearish change4643.9
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change44.646.1
ISM Manufacturing PMI(no change)47.247.2
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change5448.3
JOLTS Job OpeningsBullish change7.711M8.04M
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBullish change46.146.6
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change6970.1
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(no change)3.1%3.1%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.2%0.1%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.6%2.7%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.2%0.1%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change2.5%2.2%
Personal Income (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Personal SpendingBearish change0.5%0.2%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change-5.5%0.6%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(no change)2.8%2.8%
Durable Goods OrdersBearish change9.9%0%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBearish change10.3%-0.2%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBullish change-0.1%0.5%
Gross Domestic Product Annualized(no change)3%3%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index(no change)2.5%2.5%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change222K218K
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change-0.2%0.2%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(no change)2.5%2.5%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change10.3%-4.7%
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0%0.1%
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change54.654.4
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBearish change47.947
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change55.755.4
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change1.5%-2.5%

About Nonfarm Payrolls

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Usually the 1st Friday of the month, but sometimes the 2nd Friday
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