Market Analysis
Aussie slides after RBA holds at 3.6% | WTI dips to $58.50 on Iraq supply recovery | USD/CAD soft amid tariff risks 🇨🇦 | AUD/NZD drops toward 1.1440, AUD/JPY under 103.50 as AUD weakness broadens. Markets cautious on central-bank signals + energy sentiment.
By IC Markets
What happened in the Asia session?
During the Asia session, markets exhibited caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s anticipated 25 basis point rate cut, with Asian stocks slipping, Japan’s Nikkei 225 down 0.11%, South Korea’s Kospi off 0.36%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declining 0.19% while the dollar held steady and Treasury yields rose. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate unchanged at 3.6% for the third consecutive meeting, citing recent inflation upticks and economic strength like falling unemployment to 4.3%, though it noted uncertainty in new monthly CPI data.
What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Today’s sessions hinge on the U.S. Fed-related catalysts and catch-up data post-shutdown, European soft retail metrics, and global GDP resilience forecasts around 3% into 2026, urging vigilance on rate paths and trade risks. Traders should monitor key U.S. economic releases like delayed government data, including jobs reports and FOMC minutes, alongside European indicators such as German retail sales and UK borrowing figures, as markets open amid Fed rate decision anticipation and post-shutdown volatility.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
JOLTS Job Openings (3:00 pm GMT)
ADP Weekly Employment Change (Tentative)
What can we expect from DXY today?
The US Dollar showed resilience, holding steady amid rising bond yields across Asia, Europe, and the US, with the Dollar Index (DXY) trading above key support levels like 99.00 as markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and updated economic projections. The dollar strengthened broadly versus majors, rebounding from early weakness due to higher Treasury yields (10-year at 4.17%) and reduced expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts now leaning toward just two more by the end of 2026, while shrugging off ECB hawkishness and positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting.
Central Bank Notes:
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% at its December 9–10, 2025, meeting, marking the third consecutive cut after the October reduction to 3.75%–4.00%
The Committee continues to pursue maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, with the labor market showing further softening as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September 2025 amid modest job gains.
Officials note persistent downside risks to growth alongside resilient activity, with inflation easing to 3.0% year-over-year CPI in September but remaining elevated due to tariff effects; core PCE stands at around 2.8% as of October.
Economic activity grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2 2025 per revised estimates, though Q3 and Q4 face headwinds from trade tensions, fiscal restraint, and data disruptions like the government shutdown.
September’s Summary of Economic Projections forecasts 2025 unemployment at a median 4.5%, with PCE inflation near 3.0% and core PCE at 3.1%, signaling a gradual disinflation path; updates expected on December 10 may adjust for higher unemployment and lower growth.
The Committee maintained its data-dependent approach, noting a softening labor market and inflation above the 2% target, while deciding to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%. Dissent persisted, with multiple members opposing the cut or advocating for a hold, reflecting divisions similar to recent meetings.
The FOMC confirmed the conclusion of its quantitative tightening program effective December 1, 2025, with Treasury rolloff caps at $5 billion per month and agency MBS caps at $35 billion per month to ensure ample reserves and market stability.
The next meeting is scheduled for 27 to 28 January 2026.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
JOLTS Job Openings (3:00 pm GMT)
ADP Weekly Employment Change (Tentative)
What can we expect from Gold today?
Gold prices hovered around $4,195-$4,196 per ounce, marking a modest recovery of about 0.12-0.13% from the prior day amid a softer US dollar and heightened expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, though caution prevailed ahead of US economic data like nonfarm payrolls. Predictions suggest potential upside toward $4,245 or higher if rate-cut bets firm up, with buying dips recommended amid fiscal concerns and trade frictions.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from EUR today?
The Euro (EUR) showed resilience, trading around 1.1645-1.1650 against the USD, near its strongest levels since mid-October, amid hawkish ECB comments and expectations of steady Eurozone rates through 2026, contrasting with anticipated US Federal Reserve cuts. European leaders, including UK PM Keir Starmer, French President Macron, and German Chancellor Merz, reported positive progress on utilizing frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s reconstruction, signaling unified economic pressure on Russia.
Central Bank Notes:
The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, supported by stable banking-sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from CHF today?
The USD/CHF exchange rate stood at approximately 0.8058 as of December 8, marking a slight 0.08% daily increase amid anticipation for the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) policy decision, with the franc holding near multi-year highs around 0.80 per USD. Traders are positioning ahead of the SNB and Federal Reserve rate announcements, with USD/CHF climbing to a one-week high near 0.8072, reflecting a modest USD rebound and safe-haven flows into CHF amid global uncertainty
Central Bank Notes:
The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
Monetary Policy Report Hearings (12:15 pm GMT)
What can we expect from GBP today?
The British Pound (GBP) traded around 1.3327 against the USD, showing a minimal change of -0.01% from the prior session while stabilizing near a six-week high after last week’s rally. Markets focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, with the GBP giving back some recent momentum amid expectations of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut and persistent resistance near 1.34.
Central Bank Notes:
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from CAD today?
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) traded slightly stronger against the USD, with the USD/CAD exchange rate at 1.3851-1.3852, reflecting a minor 0.04% decline from the prior session amid broader USD weakness. This follows recent gains driven by resilient Canadian employment data that beat estimates, pushing the CAD to 10-week highs earlier in the week and reducing expectations for aggressive Bank of Canada rate cuts.
Central Bank Notes:
The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to limit overall resale volumes, resulting in only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Oil today?
Oil prices edged down slightly, with Brent at $62.47 (down 0.03%) and WTI at $58.84 (down 0.07%), extending losses triggered by Iraq’s resumption of production at the massive West Qurna 2 oilfield, which contributes about 0.5% to global supply. Traders remained cautious after WTI’s biggest three-week decline, influenced by equity market weakness and expectations of oversupply.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium BearishBy Pepperstone
By Dilin Wu - Research Strategist
Gold consolidates at highs, facing strong $4,250 resistance. FOMC dot plot, Powell’s comments, and global central bank policy divergences may steer year-end market moves.
Markets are steady ahead of the US PCE inflation data. Gold trades flat near $4,205, silver rises to ~$57.50, WTI crude holds around $59.45, and AUD/USD and GBP/USD remain stable. Traders await PCE results, with Fed rate expectations and geopolitical risks shaping cautious sentiment.
The Yen strengthens as BoJ tightening expectations grow, while the AUD rises on a larger trade surplus and reduced odds of RBA cuts. The USD trades mixed, with USD/CAD steady, USD/JPY easing, NZD/USD consolidating, and USD/CNY guided lower by a stronger PBOC fix. Markets now await US data and central bank signals for direction.
The US Dollar slips toward 99.20 as traders await key US data, while rate-cut expectations keep pressure on the greenback. AUD and NZD strengthen on firm domestic signals and China momentum, USD/CNY edges higher on soft China PMI, and AUD/JPY stays weak after GDP misses. Markets now look to US PCE, ISM, and jobs data for direction.
WTI’s drop below $59 highlights weak demand and keeps oil in a bearish trend, pressuring the CAD and supporting USD/CAD near 1.40. Risk-on sentiment lifts USD/JPY, silver corrects after a record run, and a slightly higher USD/CNY fix signals controlled yuan moves ahead of key US and China data.
By FP Markets
Last week brought a welcome dose of clarity for the UK. Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her Autumn Budget to the House of Commons, increasing her fiscal buffer to £22 billion, while announcing £26 billion in tax rises.
By Naga
Markets regained momentum with stocks rising, gold reclaiming $4,100 and the dollar easing. Get the full breakdown of the macro backdrop, sector moves and trader sentiment.
Metals Surge as Gold and Silver Break New Highs Amid Growing Fed Cut Expectations | 1st December 202
Gold tops $4,200 and silver hits $57.50 as Fed rate-cut expectations and softer US yields fuel safe-haven demand. WTI rises toward $59.30 after OPEC+ halts supply hikes. EUR/USD trades above 1.1600 on USD weakness, while USD/CNY faces pressure from weak Chinese PMI. Markets eye US data and Fed commentary for the next catalyst.
By OEXN
Canada will impose "new 25% tariffs" on a range of steel derivative products — including many made in the US — as Prime Minister Mark Carney moves to support a steel industry hurt by cheap Chinese imports and the trade war.
DeepSeek, a rising force in AI, has sent shockwaves through the US stock market with its cost-effective AI (artificial intelligence) models. While DeepSeek’s rise has captured market attention, it remains to be seen how sustainable its competitive edge will be.
Majors strengthen as Fed rate-cut bets weigh on the USD. GBP and AUD rise on firm domestic data, while NZD holds near monthly highs onhawkish RBNZ signals. USD/CNY stays steady after a stable PBOC fix, and USD/CAD firms above 1.40 on weak oil. Markets await US PCE and key central-bank commentary.
Gold and silver stay in focus as softer US data and rising Fed rate-cut bets lift precious metals. USD/JPY extends its decline on BoJ tightening hopes, while AUD/USD firms on improved risk sentiment. Silver corrects below 53.00, gold consolidates, and WTI slips on Ukraine–Russia ceasefire reports. Markets await key US data and Fed signals.
The Yen surged on BoJ hike speculation, pressuring USD/JPY, while EUR/JPY stayed range-bound. Silver climbed toward $52 on softer US yields, and WTI held above $58 on Fed-cut optimism. USD/CAD dipped toward 1.4080 as CAD strengthened. Markets remain driven by central bank signals and upcoming US data.
By Naga
Volatility dominated markets with major moves in equities, FX, commodities, and crypto. Learn how the S&P, gold, USD/JPY, and Bitcoin reacted to economic data and U.S. unemployment claims.
By FP Markets
It was another bruising week for risk amid a cocktail of concerns that sent investors running for the exit. Despite positive earnings from bellwether chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA), optimism proved short-lived.
Markets trade cautiously as expectations grow for a December Fed rate cut. The USD Index holds near 100.00, gold breaks above $4,050 on dovish sentiment, and silver lags below $50. AUD/USD steadies ahead of key CPI data, while USD/CAD stays pressured by softer USD and firm commodities.
Major currencies saw sharp moves as mixed US data weakened the dollar while strong Australian PMI supported AUD. JPY stayed pressured by policy divergence, and the PBOC guided CNY slightly stronger. USD/CAD eased but remains firm on soft Canadian data. Traders await PMI and central bank signals to gauge the next direction.
Precious metals firmed as gold and silver gained ahead of key US labor data, while oil edged higher on EIA draws. FX markets were steady, with USD/CAD supported by weaker oil and USD/CNY guided by PBOC stability. Traders remain cautious, awaiting the delayed NFP and central bank cues to shape short-term momentum.
By Pepperstone
After a significant crypto market pullback, traders are asking whether this correction now represents a more attractive entry point for medium- and longer-term positioning.
Forex markets trade cautiously as inflation expectations and the upcoming Fed Minutes keep sentiment tight. The USD holds firm, pressuring EUR, GBP, CAD, and JPY, while weaker oil supports USD/CAD. Traders brace for hawkish signals, with most pairs staying range-bound ahead of key data and central bank updates.
The AUD weakened after cautious RBA Minutes signaled no near-term tightening. Gold slipped below $4,050 on USD strength, while AUD/USD and NZD/USD extended losses amid hawkish Fed signals. Yen softened despite Japan’s ¥17T stimulus, and GBP/JPY climbed to multi-week highs. Market sentiment stays defensive ahead of key data.
By IC Markets
What happened in the Asia session?
The Asia session on November 17 saw mixed activity in regional equity indexes, commodity prices, and currency pairs driven by Japan’s weaker GDP, sectoral pressures, and cautious investor sentiment ahead of major U.S., European, and regional data releases. Tourism and retail stocks in Japan were especially impacted, while the Kospi showed relative strength, and oil prices weakened. The yen held steady after the GDP release, and Indian markets opened firm amid strong domestic flows.
What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Today’s trading sessions are characterized by significant uncertainty stemming from delayed U.S. economic data, shifting Fed rate cut expectations (now at 50% for December), and anticipation of critical corporate earnings. Canadian inflation data (1:30 PM GMT) represents the day’s key macroeconomic release, while Japan’s confirmed GDP contraction highlights global growth concerns. Bitcoin’s 25% pullback from October highs reflects broader risk-off sentiment, while oil prices remain under pressure despite geopolitical tensions.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
Empire State Manufacturing Index (1:35 pm GMT)
FOMC member Waller speaks (8:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
The US dollar is navigating a complex environment marked by diminished Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations, lingering economic uncertainty from the historic government shutdown, and a critical week of data releases ahead. With the DXY testing key support around 99.00 and December Fed rate cut odds falling below 50%, the dollar’s near-term trajectory hinges on forthcoming economic indicators that will finally shed light on the US economy’s true condition.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted, by majority, to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% at its October 28–29, 2025, meeting, marking the second consecutive cut following the 25 basis points reduction in September.
- The Committee maintained its long-term objectives of maximum employment and 2% inflation, noting that the labor market continues to soften, with modest job creation and an unemployment rate edging higher. In comparison, inflation remains above target at around 3.0%.
- Policymakers highlighted ongoing downside risks to economic growth, tempered by signs of resilient economic activity. September’s consumer price index (CPI) came in slightly below expectations at 3.0% year-over-year, easing inflationary pressure but still warranting vigilance amid tariff-driven price effects.
- Economic activity expanded modestly in the third quarter, with GDP growth estimates around 1.0% annualized; however, uncertainty remains elevated amid persistent global trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, which is impacting data availability.
- The updated Summary of Economic Projections reflects an anticipated unemployment rate averaging approximately 4.5% for 2025, with headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation projections holding near 3.0%, indicating a slow easing path ahead.
- The Committee emphasized its flexible, data-dependent approach and underscored that future policy adjustments will be guided by incoming labor market and inflation data. As in prior meetings, there was dissent, including one member advocating a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut.
- The FOMC announced the planned conclusion of its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) program, intending to cease runoff in the near term to maintain market stability, with Treasury redemption caps held steady at $5 billion per month and agency mortgage-backed securities caps at $35 billion.
- The next meeting is scheduled for 9 to 10 December 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
Empire State Manufacturing Index (1:30 pm GMT)
FOMC Member Waller Speaks (8:35 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
Gold stabilized near $4,100 on November 17 after two days of losses driven by collapsing expectations for a December Fed rate cut, now viewed as essentially a coin toss at 44-50% probability. The metal remains up 55-57% year-to-date despite retreating from October’s record high above $4,380.
The recently concluded 43-day U.S. government shutdown created significant volatility, initially boosting gold above $4,240 on safe-haven demand before triggering profit-taking on resolution. Delayed economic data and hawkish Fed commentary have introduced genuine uncertainty for the December 10 FOMC meeting.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from EUR today?
The euro opened Monday’s trading session on a firm footing at 1.1621, supported by a combination of US dollar weakness, stable ECB policy, and resilient eurozone services sector performance. While the ECB maintains its “good place” with rates on hold and only a 40% chance of cuts by September 2026, the Federal Reserve faces growing pressure to ease further, with December rate cut odds now a coin toss at approximately 50%.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Governing Council of the ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged at its 30 October 2025 meeting. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.40%, and the deposit facility at 2.00%. This decision reflects policymakers’ assessment that the current monetary stance remains consistent with medium-term price stability, while incoming data confirm a gradual return of inflation towards the target.
- Recent indicators point to stable price dynamics. Headline inflation remains near the 2% mark, with energy prices contained and food inflation easing slightly after earlier supply bottlenecks. Wage growth continues to moderate, contributing to the slowdown in domestic cost pressures. The ECB reiterated its commitment to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and emphasized flexibility amid uncertain global financial conditions.
- Eurosystem staff projections have not been materially altered since September. Headline inflation averages remain at 2.0% for 2025, 1.8% for 2026, and 2.0% for 2027. Recent softening in producer prices and subdued pipeline pressures suggest limited upside risks to inflation, though geopolitical tensions and potential commodity shocks continue to pose uncertainties to the outlook.
- Euro area GDP growth remains on track with earlier forecasts, projected at 1.1% for 2025, 1.1% for 2026, and 1.4% for 2027. Forward-looking indicators, including PMIs and industrial sentiment surveys, signal some stabilization in activity following weakness in the third quarter. Public investment and recovering export activity are expected to offset softer private sector demand in the near term.
- The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment rates at multi-decade lows and participation rates strong. Real income growth continues to support household spending, even as consumption growth normalizes from earlier highs. Financing conditions remain favorable, aided by stable banking sector liquidity and improved credit demand among small and medium-sized firms.
- Business sentiment remains mixed, reflecting lingering uncertainty over global trade policy and the path of US tariffs. However, easing supply chain costs and improved export competitiveness due to softer exchange rates are providing some relief to manufacturing and external-oriented sectors.
- The Governing Council reaffirmed that future decisions will depend on an integrated assessment of incoming data—covering inflation trends, financial conditions, and the state of policy transmission. The Council emphasized that no pre-set path for rates exists; keeping all options open should the economic outlook shift markedly.
- Balance sheet reduction continues smoothly, with holdings under the APP and PEPP declining as reinvestments have ceased. The ECB confirmed that the pace of portfolio runoff remains in line with its previously communicated normalization plan, supporting a gradual withdrawal of monetary accommodation in a predictable manner.
- The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from CHF today?
The Swiss Franc enters the week at multi-year highs, supported by three key pillars: the confirmed US tariff reduction from 39% to 15%, ongoing safe-haven demand driven by global uncertainty, and SNB policy stability at 0% with negative rates ruled out. The USD/CHF pair is trading near 0.79, its strongest level since 2011, while EUR/CHF has reached levels not seen since 2015. With Switzerland’s Q3 GDP flash estimate due today and the December 11 SNB meeting on the horizon, the franc’s trajectory will depend on economic data releases and any shifts in the SNB’s confident inflation outlook.
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB maintained its key policy rate at 0% during its meeting on 25 September 2025, pausing a sequence of six consecutive rate cuts as inflation stabilized and the Swiss franc remained firm.
- Recent data showed a modest rebound in inflation, with Swiss consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year in August after staying above zero for three consecutive months; this helped alleviate fears of deflation that were mounting earlier in the year.
- The conditional inflation forecast remains broadly unchanged from June: headline inflation is expected to average 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027. The risk of a negative rate move has diminished for now, but the SNB retains flexibility should inflationary pressures weaken again.
- The global economic outlook has deteriorated further, weighed down by heightened trade tensions—especially with the U.S.—and ongoing uncertainty in key Swiss export markets.
- Swiss GDP growth moderated in Q2 after a strong Q1 boosted by front-loaded U.S. exports. The SNB expects growth to slow and remain subdued, with forecasted GDP expansion between 1% and 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
- Labor market sentiment in the Swiss industrial sector has softened on concerns over export competitiveness and potential adjustments to production, but the overall growth outlook stays broadly unchanged
- The SNB reiterated its readiness to respond as needed if deflation risks re-emerge, emphasizing its commitment to medium-term price stability and a robust, transparent communication policy, with the introduction of more detailed monetary policy minutes beginning in October.
- The next meeting is on 11 December 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from GBP today?
The British Pound faces significant headwinds as Monday’s Asian session begins. The government’s fiscal U-turn has raised questions about the UK’s fiscal credibility, while persistently weak economic data has cemented expectations for a December rate cut. With markets pricing in a 75-80% probability of a 25 basis point cut on 18 December, and technical indicators pointing to further downside risk, Sterling is likely to remain under pressure unless upcoming data surprises to the upside or Catherine Mann’s comments signal resistance to near-term easing. Traders should watch the 1.3150-1.3185 support zone closely, as a break below could accelerate losses toward 1.2875 or lower.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met on 6 November 2025 and voted by a majority of 7–2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.00 percent for a second consecutive meeting. The decision reflects the Committee’s cautious approach as inflation remains above target, but underlying economic momentum continues to weaken. Two members maintained their votes for a 25-basis-point cut, citing further signs of labor-market softening and weak business sentiment.
- The BOE adjusted its guidance on quantitative tightening (QT), maintaining the reduced pace established in September. The planned reduction of UK government bond holdings remains at £67.5 billion over the next 12 months, leaving the current gilt balance near £550 billion. Policymakers described the recalibrated QT path as “appropriate for current market conditions,” emphasizing the importance of liquidity management amid heightened volatility.
- Headline inflation moderated slightly to 3.6 percent in October from 3.8 percent previously, driven by easing food and transport prices. However, core inflation has shown only gradual progress, holding near 3.9 percent. The MPC noted that services inflation and administered energy costs continue to exert pressure, highlighting the challenge of achieving the 2 percent target sustainably. The Committee’s latest projections see inflation falling toward 3 percent by mid-2026, with further downside expected if energy and wage dynamics continue to normalize.
- Economic activity remains subdued. Estimates place Q3 GDP growth close to zero, with both business output and consumer spending restrained. The unemployment rate has edged up to 4.8 percent, while pay growth cooled to just under 5 percent year-on-year. MPC members acknowledged that pay settlements are weakening further, signaling an easing in labor cost pressures as demand softens. Surveys from the manufacturing and services sectors suggest muted hiring intentions through year-end.
- International factors continue to complicate the policy outlook. Fluctuating oil prices—partly linked to renewed Middle East tensions—alongside fragile global demand have contributed to higher market volatility. The MPC reiterated that external shocks, including global food and energy disruptions, could temporarily slow the disinflation path but remain unlikely to derail the medium-term moderation in prices.
- The Committee assessed risks around inflation as balanced. Downside risks arise from sluggish domestic growth and declining real income momentum, while upside risks remain tied to elevated inflation expectations and stubborn services inflation. Policymakers emphasized the need for patience, maintaining that any rate cuts ahead of clear inflation progress could undermine confidence in policy credibility.
- The MPC’s overall stance remains restrictive but increasingly balanced, with future moves expected to follow a cautious, data-driven trajectory. The Committee reaffirmed that monetary policy will stay tight until there is compelling evidence that inflation is returning to the 2 percent target on a durable basis.
- The next meeting is on 18 December 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
CPI m/m (1:30 pm GMT)
Median CPI y/y (1:30 pm GMT)
Trimmed CPI y/y (1:30 pm GMT)
Common CPI y/y (1:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from CAD today?
Today marks a pivotal moment for Canadian Dollar traders with the October CPI release. Inflation data coming in line with expectations would likely reinforce the market consensus that the Bank of Canada has paused rate cuts, providing technical support for the loonie around current levels near 1.40. However, the broader outlook remains subdued with rate differentials and trade uncertainty weighing on medium-term CAD performance. The market will closely watch both the headline and core inflation figures alongside any forward guidance cues for the December 10 BoC decision.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Council noted that U.S. tariff tensions have eased slightly following early progress in bilateral discussions, though the external trade environment remains fragile. Businesses continue to hold back on long-term investment, with the Bank highlighting that sustained clarity on U.S. trade policy is needed to restore confidence.
- The Bank acknowledged that uncertainty persists despite the softer U.S. tone, as incoming data show limited improvement in export orders. The manufacturing sector has stabilized but remains below pre-2024 output levels, reflecting weak global demand and cautious corporate spending.
- Canada’s economy showed tentative signs of recovery in early Q4, with GDP estimated to expand by 0.3% in October after two quarters of contraction. Mining and energy activity strengthened modestly, aided by steady crude demand, while goods exports posted a fractional gain.
- Service sector growth remained uneven, supported mainly by tourism-related and technology services. However, retail spending and household consumption were subdued, constrained by slower job creation and lingering consumer caution. The Bank judged overall momentum as fragile but improving marginally.
- Housing activity showed modest reacceleration in major urban markets as mortgage rates stabilized near record lows. Nonetheless, affordability pressures and stricter lending standards continue to cap overall resale volumes, leading to only a gradual recovery in the housing sector.
- Headline CPI inflation rose to 2.1% in October, reaching the Bank’s target for the first time in six months. Higher energy prices and a modest uptick in food and shelter costs drove the increase. Core inflation measures remained stable, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained.
- The Governing Council reiterated its data-dependent stance, indicating that the current policy rate remains appropriate amid tentative growth and balanced inflation risks. Officials noted that while additional stimulus is not ruled out, the emphasis has shifted toward monitoring the sustainability of the recovery rather than immediate rate adjustments.
- The next meeting is on 17 to 18 December 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
WeaK Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news event
What can we expect from Oil today?
Oil prices declined on Monday, November 17, as Russian export operations resumed at Novorossiysk following Ukrainian strikes. The market faces significant bearish pressure from a growing supply glut, with the IEA warning of surpluses reaching 4 million bpd in 2026. Despite geopolitical risks from intensifying Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil taking effect on November 21, and Iran’s tanker seizure in the Strait of Hormuz, these supply risks have proven insufficient to offset fundamental oversupply concerns.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak BearishBy FP Markets
Markets welcome what could be a pivotal week, as they grapple with the aftermath of the prolonged US government shutdown. The week’s highlights will include the delayed September US jobs report on Thursday, UK inflation numbers, and S&P Global PMI data.
The US Dollar strengthened as fading global rate-cut expectations boosted demand for safety and yield. Risk currencies like NZD, GBP, and EUR fell, while USD pairs firmed on resilient US data and cautious central bank outlooks. Mixed signals from China and weak UK/EU data kept sentiment soft, keeping USD in the driver’s seat.
Asian markets improved after the PBoC delivered a firmer yuan fixing, boosting risk appetite and lifting AUD and NZD. The USD eased slightly, helping major pairs stabilize. China-driven sentiment supported regional FX, while JPY remained weak and EUR held steady, with traders awaiting upcoming US data for direction.
Global markets rallied as Fed rate-cut hopes boosted metals, with Gold nearing $4,200 and Silver hitting a four-week high. Softer U.S. yields and a weaker dollar lifted sentiment, while the Aussie eased after mixed jobs data. The Pound steadied ahead of UK GDP, and China maintained yuan stability, signaling calm across major markets.
Global markets edged higher as optimism over a U.S. government reopening lifted risk sentiment. Oil steadied above $60, supported by improving demand, while Gold and the Yen softened amid reduced safe-haven demand. The USD gained modestly, with traders eyeing upcoming U.S. CPI and Fed commentary for fresh policy cues.
Global markets steadied as optimism grew over a potential U.S. government shutdown resolution. The USD gained modestly, boosting commodity-linked currencies while Gold and Silver extended gains on Fed rate cut expectations. Oil held near recent highs, and risk sentiment recovered cautiously amid improving fiscal outlook and softer U.S. data.
By IC Markets
IC Markets Global • Nov 10, 2025
Asian stock markets are trading mostly higher on Monday, tracking the mixed cues from Wall Street on Friday, as traders welcome reports that the U.S. Senate is nearing a deal to extend government funding after a record 40-day shutdown.
By Naga
Markets rebounded after early-week volatility as strong U.S. data and steady central banks lifted sentiment across equities, commodities, and FX.
By FP Markets
As Stock markets edged lower from record highs last week, the Fed, like everyone else, continues to face a data drought.
By OEXN
US stocks fell sharply Thursday as renewed worries over Big Tech and weak job data rattled markets, driving a flight to bonds.
Global Currencies React to Shifting Trade Data and Central Bank Policies Amid Mixed Dollar Performan
The U.S. Dollar steadied near 100.00 as firm yields and weak Chinese trade data pressured risk currencies. The Aussie and Kiwi fell on slower export outlooks, while USD/CAD held near six-month highs. The Yen eased as BoJ stayed dovish. Traders now await U.S. inflation and sentiment data for the Fed’s next policy cues.
Markets traded cautiously as the U.S. shutdown hit record length, pressuring the Dollar near 100.00. Gold eased below $4,000 and silver held near $49 amid profit-taking. The Yen gained slightly on BoJ speculation, while the yuan steadied after a firmer PBoC fix. Traders await U.S. inflation data and Fed speeches for next policy cues.
By Pepperstone
Markets have focused intently on the Supreme Court hearing and the forthcoming ruling on Trump’s use of IEEPA tariffs — a case that could potentially reshape U.S. trade policy, alter deficit projections, and inject a degree of uncertainty and volatility into global markets.
By Naga
NASDAQ 100 holds firm near 20,000 as buyers assess key support. Explore recent trends, potential rebound zones, and risk factors in tech stocks.
By Doo Prime
The short answer is not yet. But we’re getting closer.
The AI boom has been unstoppable. New chips, smarter models, and trillion-dollar valuations everywhere you look.
Investors are calling it “the next internet,” but history is flashing a warning: we’ve seen this before.
From soaring AI stocks to parabolic charts that echo the 1999 dot com bubble, the similarities are hard to ignore.
So, will this AI boom end with a quiet correction or a full-blown tech crash?
Let’s dig into the charts, the hype, and what voices like Bill Gates and Fed Chair Jerome Powell really think about today’s AI mania.
The AI Boom Feels Familiar
The rise of artificial intelligence stocks looks similar to the 1999 bubble.
Back then, the internet was “the future”. Today, it’s AI.
In both cases, investors poured billions into unproven business models.
Back then, it was websites. Now, it’s data centers, chips, and algorithms.
Still, not all hype ends the same way.
Unlike the dot com boom, today’s AI leaders such as Nvidia, Microsoft, AMD, Amazon, and Alphabet are profitable and cash-rich.
That’s a big difference from the 2000 bubble, when many firms didn’t even have revenue.
Could We Still See a Parabolic Move First?
Look at this chart.
The current AI market rally still sits below the 2000 peak when compared to the dot com bubble.
That means we could see one huge parabolic move to the upside before a potential AI stock crash.
That’s exactly how the internet bubble behaved:
- Tech stocks doubled in the final months of 1999.
- Then, the tech crash erased 78% of the Nasdaq by late 2002.
So while we may not be at the top yet, the setup looks familiar. A melt-up before the unwind.
The Nasdaq vs. Dow Ratio: Déjà Vu of 2000
The Nasdaq-to-Dow ratio tells a clear story.
AI-driven tech stocks have massively outperformed industrial and financial names, just like during the dot com boom.
Whenever that ratio spikes this sharply, history shows a correction usually follows.
But again, there’s a nuance. The AI bubble is built on real infrastructure spending, not just dreams.
Cloud computing, AI data centers, and chip demand are creating tangible growth, not vaporware.
Still, investor concentration in the top AI stocks, mainly Nvidia, Microsoft, and AMD, could mean any slowdown hits fast and hard.
Bill Gates Warns of an Early AI Bubble
Even Bill Gates sees signs of a potential bubble forming.
In an interview this month, he said we’re in the “early stages of an AI bubble.”
His reasoning is that too many startups are chasing the same goal. They are building AI tools that might never turn a profit.
History says that when every company claims to be “AI-powered,” a shakeout usually follows.
But Gates also pointed out that this time, the winners will be enormous.
Just like Amazon and Google survived the dot com crash, a few best AI stocks could define the next decade.
In his words: “We’ll see failures, but the survivors will redefine everything.”
Powell Pushes Back: “AI Is Not a Bubble”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell disagrees.
He recently said AI is “not a bubble like the dot com era.”
His logic: productivity gains are measurable this time.
AI isn’t just hype, it’s driving real corporate investment, especially in automation, logistics, and software.
Powell’s view aligns with the Fed’s stance that the AI market boom is more structural than speculative.
In short: valuations are high, but fundamentals are stronger than 1999.
Still, bubbles often look rational right before they burst.
Why the AI Bubble Might Not Burst Yet
So, will the AI bubble burst?
Probably not right away.
History suggests that bubbles rarely die quietly.
They often end with a final blow-off phase, a euphoric rally before reality hits.
Right now, the market hasn’t shown that last phase yet.
Liquidity remains high, earnings from top artificial intelligence stocks are still growing, and retail FOMO hasn’t peaked.
In other words: the AI bubble burst may be coming, but the timing isn’t here yet.
We could see one more surge, especially if rate cuts arrive in 2025.
The Top AI Stocks Driving the Boom
If you pull up any AI stocks list, the same names dominate:
Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta.
Together, they make up a huge share of the S&P 500’s performance this year.
But that’s also the risk. If one cracks, the AI market crash could spread fast.
Investors are also piling into smaller Artificial Intelligence chipmakers and automation software companies, echoing the speculative wave of the dot com bubble.
Not all will survive.
How to Invest in Artificial Intelligence
If you’re wondering how to invest in artificial intelligence safely, think balance.
Instead of chasing parabolic moves, look for companies with real cash flow and product adoption.
Avoid overhyped names with little revenue, that’s where the bubble AI risk sits.
Diversification and patience matter more than timing the top.
As Gates hinted, the winners will likely become the next trillion-dollar giants.
But the road there will be volatile.
What Makes This Different from 1999
Despite the hype, there are crucial differences between now and the dot com bubble:
- Companies like Nvidia and Microsoft are profitable.
- AI adoption is already driving productivity.
- Global capital is more diversified.
Back in 1999, the internet was a promise.
Today, Artificial Intelligence is already an industry.
That doesn’t mean we’re safe. It just means the AI stock crash, if it comes, might look more like a rotation than a collapse.
Final Thoughts: A Bubble in Progress
So, is there an AI bubble?
Yes, but it’s still inflating.
Every revolution comes with speculation.
The 1999 bubble wiped out thousands of companies, yet it paved the way for trillion-dollar tech giants.
The Artificial Intelligence boom could do the same.
Some valuations will deflate, but innovation will outlast the noise.
We may be in the early innings of a bubble, not the end of one.
And if history repeats, the most painful corrections usually come after the biggest gains.By LiteFinance
At 02:30 (GMT+2), in Australia, September trade balance data will be released, an indicator that records the difference between payments for exported and imported goods. The surplus may increase from 1.825B Australian dollars to 3.860B Australian dollars, supporting the national currency.
Markets traded mixed as a possible U.S. government shutdown and easing U.S.-China tensions shaped sentiment. Gold climbed above $4,000 on safe-haven demand, WTI oil slipped near $60 on rising inventories, and GBP/USD fell to 1.3040 amid BoE caution. China’s tariff cuts boosted optimism, but traders remain wary ahead of key U.S. data.
Global FX markets opened cautiously as central banks set the tone. The Aussie briefly firmed after the RBA held rates at 3.6%, while the Yen strengthened on rising BoJ hike bets. GBP/USD steadied near 1.3150, EUR/JPY slipped to 177.00, USD/CAD stayed above 1.4050, and AUD/NZD hit a two-year high. Traders await U.S. jobs data for Fed clues.
By Naga
Markets stay steady as Big Tech earnings drive equities; gold dips and oil holds amid a strong dollar.
By FP Markets
Following a hawkish Fed rate cut, focus shifts to updates from the RBA and BoE, and US ISM and ADP numbers
Markets opened cautiously as investors sought safety in metals and watched OPEC+ signals. Gold held near $4,000 and silver at $49 amid safe-haven demand, while oil rebounded above $61 after OPEC+ paused planned output hikes. The Yen stayed weak on BoJ uncertainty, and the Yuan steadied on a firm PBoC fix. Traders eye key US data and Fed remarks this week.
By IC Markets
US Stocks Hit on Mixed Earnings and Fed – Nasdaq Down 1.57%
USDJPY Back in Focus for Longer-Term FX Players
Another Volatile Day Expected for Traders
Markets steadied as the US Dollar stayed firm after hawkish Fed remarks dampened hopes for near-term rate cuts. Gold hovered below $4,050 and silver near $49.00 amid cautious sentiment. The Aussie weakened on soft China data, while USD/JPY slipped as sticky Tokyo inflation revived BoJ shift bets. Traders await key US inflation and jobs data.
Global markets traded cautiously as the Trump–Xi meeting drew global attention, shaping risk sentiment and trade outlook. Gold held near $3,950 while silver steadied around $47.50. Risk currencies like AUD and NZD advanced on trade optimism, and USD softened ahead of key event updates. Traders await concrete signals to set November’s tone.
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