Market Analysis
By EBC
The Canadian dollar fell Friday as Trump planned 15–20% blanket tariffs on most trade partners, signaling more global trade upheaval.
On July 10, silver extends gains toward $36.50 amid rising macro uncertainty and safe-haven demand. The US Dollar weakens, boosting AUD and NZD. USD/JPY trims early losses as BoJ hike hopes fade, while EUR/JPY retreats from highs on softening sentiment. Markets brace for US Jobless Claims to guide the next leg in global risk and Fed rate expectations.
By EBC
Oil prices fell Thursday after Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazil. OPEC+ agreed to speed up output hikes despite global economic uncertainty.
On July 10, silver extends gains toward $36.50 amid rising macro uncertainty and safe-haven demand. The US Dollar weakens, boosting AUD and NZD. USD/JPY trims early losses as BoJ hike hopes fade, while EUR/JPY retreats from highs on softening sentiment. Markets brace for US Jobless Claims to guide the next leg in global risk and Fed rate expectations.
By Deriv
So far in 2025, what looks like market chaos has actually been a goldmine - at least for the brave. Every wobble, every sharp drop, every so-called “bloodbath” has turned into a buying opportunity. And those who dared to dive in? They’re laughing all the way to the bank.
With the S&P 500 at record highs and tech stocks like Nvidia bouncing back stronger after every fall, one question keeps coming up: is buying the dip not just working 0 but winning?
Nasdaq record highs
Let’s start with the numbers. According to analysts, if you’d simply bought the Nasdaq 100 every time it had a down day this year, you’d be up roughly 32% - the best result for that strategy in five years. For context, this time last year, that return sat at a modest 5%.
The pace we’re seeing now puts 2025 on track to become the best year for dip-buying since at least 1985. Yes, even better than the bubbly days of 1999.
And it’s not like this has been a calm ride either. Out of the 124 trading days so far, the Nasdaq’s been down in 51 of them. That’s a whole lot of red candles - but also a whole lot of green rebounds.
Nvidia stock dips harder - and snaps back faster
If the market as a whole has rewarded dip-buyers, Nvidia has practically crowned them royalty.
The AI darling kicked off the year under pressure from China’s DeepSeek, a cheaper challenger in the machine-learning space. Then came the meltdown: on 27 January, Nvidia logged its worst-ever single-day drop - a brutal 17% fall. Ouch.
But that pain didn’t last. By early February, the stock had bounced back 20% heading into earnings. It wasn’t a one-off either. In April, Nvidia followed the market lower again, this time on fears surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs. Shares tumbled 33% to their lowest point of the year.
And then, you guessed it, another rally. A steep, unapologetic one. Since bottoming out, Nvidia has gone on to set new record highs, with shares rising 12% in just the past month. It’s been a dream for traders with the stomach for sharp drops and the conviction to hold through them.
Nvidia keeps hitting the Wall Street news
This isn’t just retail traders on Reddit throwing darts. Wall Street is increasingly convinced Nvidia’s dip-buying window is more than just luck.
Citi recently raised its price target to $190, suggesting a further 15% upside from current levels. One firm went even bolder, pegging a target at $250 - a price that would value Nvidia at a mind-bending $6 trillion.
Source: Yahoo Finance
Why the enthusiasm? Simple: governments are buying AI infrastructure like it’s the new electricity. Citi’s analysts say sovereign demand alone could already be contributing billions of dollars in revenue this year. They expect it to ramp up even more in 2026.
The AI gold rush is real
At Nvidia’s recent generative AI conference, insiders floated a potential benchmark for national AI infrastructure: one supercomputer or 10,000 GPUs per 100,000 government employees. Think about that. That kind of buildout could keep Nvidia busy - and profitable - for years.
The company’s Blackwell GB200 chips are already powering most of these projects, and Citi believes the rollout is only accelerating. Supply chain concerns? Largely resolved. Rack buildouts? “Happening at a rapid pace.” Even the transition to next-gen GB300 chips is expected to be smooth, thanks to lessons learned from previous launches.
Global AI arms race: Green lights, with a hint of risk
Citi now expects Nvidia’s data centre revenue to rise 5% in FY 2027 and 11% in FY 2028, with networking sales surging even faster. Margins are expected to stabilise in the mid-70% range, which is excellent for a company scaling at this pace.
Source: Seeking Alpha
That said, there are still clouds on the horizon. Trump’s administration could reintroduce export restrictions - particularly with scrutiny on Malaysia and Thailand for possible indirect shipments to China. Regulatory risks remain real, especially for a company at the heart of a global AI arms race.
Dollar-cost averaging vs timing/buying the dip
If your timing’s been good this year, it’s not even close - buying the dip has been a beast. The market’s bouncing back with a vengeance, and Nvidia’s chart looks more like a trampoline than a trendline. Add in soaring demand, bullish analyst upgrades, and a possible sprint to a $4 trillion market cap, and it’s easy to see why traders are so confident.
But here’s the unfortunate twist, a Vanguard study analyzing 90 years of S&P 500 data, revealing that even perfect market timing to "buy the dip" underperformed dollar-cost averaging (DCA), challenging the common investor belief that timing dips maximises returns
Source: Dollars and data.com, Christy capital
So, in a 2025 where buying the dip and holding your ground, especially with stocks like Nvidia, has rewarded you. the market’s been more than happy to reward you - the strategy has shown vulnerability in the long-term.
But as far as 2025 is concerned, volatility hasn’t been the enemy this year - it’s been the opportunity.
Nvidia outlook
At the time of writing, Nvidia is showing signs of buy-side exhaustion after a significant rally, hinting at a potential reversal. However, the volume bars show that dominant buy pressure over the past few days has been met by disproportionate sell-side pushback, hinting that an upside move could still be on.
If we see an uptick, prices could encounter resistance at the $161.55 resistance level. Conversely, if we see a slump, prices could find support floors at the $141.75, $132.75, and $103.35 support levels.
Is trading Nvidia dips a potential winning strategy? You can speculate on Nvidia’s price trajectory with a Deriv MT5 account.By Octa
There's the danger that the US government's imposition of sanctions via the US Dollar (USD) as the world's leading currency could cast doubt on its status if the countries that use the USD as an international transaction medium no longer support such US sanctions. But is the USD really at risk?
By VT Markets
Markets remain cautious as the US ramps up trade tensions, with fresh tariffs and tough rhetoric driving sharp moves across currencies and commodities. The developments underscore how political shifts continue to influence global market dynamics and investor sentiment.
By EBC
As of June 27, foreign capital has flowed into Japan's stock market for 13 weeks, with investments continuing to rise despite market challenges.
By EBC
Gold prices hovered near a one-week low on Wednesday, pressured by a stronger dollar, with the Fed's meeting minutes set for release later today.
On July 9, oil jumps above $67.00 on renewed Red Sea attacks, while copper surges past $5.50 after Trump vows 50% tariffs if re-elected. DXY edges up past 97.50 ahead of FOMC Minutes. China’s CPI surprises slightly at 0.1% YoY, offering mixed signals. AUD/USD trades flat, and markets brace for further volatility driven by Fed outlook and trade policy threats.
By FP Markets
With US jobs data now in the rear-view mirror, the market’s focus this week shifts to US President Donald Trump’s self-imposed reciprocal tariff deadline on 9 July.
By FXPro
The crypto market capitalisation retains its weekly growth of approximately 1.8%, losing about 0.6% over the last 24 hours to $3.35 trillion. This is another round of buyer indecision at high levels, even though declines were actively bought up. At the same time, capitalisation continues to move away from its 200-day moving average, indicating continued bullish sentiment.
By LiteFinance
At 08:00 (GMT+2), Germany will publish May data on the trade balance — an indicator that records the difference between the number of payments for exported and imported goods. An increase from 14.6 billion euros to 18.1 billion euros is forecast, which is likely to support the eurozone's single currency.
By EBC
Sterling reached its highest since October 2021 after Trump announced new tariffs on Japan, South Korea, and others, effective August 1.
On July 8, gold slips below $3,350 as risk appetite improves. Silver holds steady near $36.90, while AUD/USD rises to 0.6855 ahead of the RBA decision. USD/JPY surges above 161.00 as BoJ tightening bets fade. PBOC sets USD/CNY at 7.1534, signaling stability. Focus now shifts to US CPI, central bank guidance, and trade progress for market direction.
By Naga
With the U.S. markets closing early Thursday and fully shut Friday for the July 4th holiday, this week was a slow grind. Volume was light, volatility was minimal, and most traders were in "wait-and-see" mode.
On July 7, gold slips below $3,350 as the USD strengthens and traders take profit amid tariff-related jitters. Silver lingers under $37. EUR/USD and NZD/USD retreat on weak sentiment, while USD/CAD rises above 1.3900 as oil weakens. Markets brace for key data including US CPI and Eurozone retail sales, with Fed speeches also in focus.
By EBC
European shares fell Friday due to declines in banks and mining stocks, as attention shifts to the July deadline for a trade deal with the White House.
By EBC
U.S. stock market sentiment is strong, with stocks hitting new highs as investors return and earnings surpass expectations.
By LiteFinance
At 12:00 (GMT+2), Canada will release its June Leading Index, which includes assessments of twelve indicators such as machinery orders and stock prices. If the monthly value is adjusted upward from the current 0.10%, this will act as a catalyst for strengthening the position of the national currency.
By Tickmill
Daily Market Outlook, July 4, 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
By EBC
Oil prices were steady as a strong job market supported the Fed’s decision, with focus on Trump’s tariff plans for various countries.
On July 4, strong U.S. jobs data boosts the dollar, but Trump’s tariff warning sparks trade uncertainty. USD/CAD dips near 1.3600 as oil rebounds; AUD/USD slips below 0.6650. NZD/USD holds near 0.6050, GBP/USD steadies at 1.3650, and USD/CNY stays firm as PBOC signals caution. Markets eye ISM data and tariff updates for next moves.
By EBC
The Hang Seng index fell over 1% on Thursday after Wall Street hit a new peak. Trump announced the US-Vietnam trade deal.
On July 3, silver stays firm above $35.40 as Fed cut bets persist. EUR/USD holds near 1.1800, while GBP/USD lingers near 1.3585 ahead of UK jobs data. JPY strengthens after BoJ signals a hawkish pause. AUD/USD slips on weak trade surplus. Focus turns to US NFP and ISM data for market direction before the US holiday break.
By EBC
Trump's unstable tariff policy accelerates EU economic recovery, with increased investment inflows and ECB rate cuts stimulating growth.
By EBC
Indonesia’s nickel permit revocations in Raja Ampat raise ESG concerns and market risks—EBC analyses the impact on supply, prices, and policy credibility.
On July 2, the USD stabilizes as Fed rate cut bets build. GBP/USD nears 1.3750 highs, NZD/USD extends above 0.6120, and AUD/USD holds near 0.6820 despite soft retail sales. USD/JPY recovers to 146.20, while silver dips below $36. Markets await US labor data and Fed remarks for direction ahead of July 4.
By EBC
The yen steadied Wednesday as the dollar hovered near a 3-year low. The BOJ grows concerned over mixed inflation and weak consumer demand.
By EBC
EBC wins Best CFD Provider at the 2025 Online Money Awards, marking our first recognition for innovation, execution, and trader-first product design.
WTI dips below $64.50 as Middle East tensions ease, dampening supply fears. Silver struggles under $36, while AUD and NZD stay muted on weak China PMI. USD/JPY steadies near 145.90, and the yen holds gains on USD weakness. Traders now eye US ISM PMI and Fed minutes for clues on policy and market direction.
By EBC
EBC wins Most Trusted Broker and Best Trading Platform at the World Finance Forex Awards 2025, marking a third consecutive year of global industry recognition.
By Naga
Global markets found some calm last week as Iran-Israel tensions cooled off, dialing down the geopolitical risk. With the heat dying down, traders turned their eyes to PMI data and end-of-month moves.
By FP Markets
The week ahead welcomes a slew of key US employment metrics, which may further increase the odds of additional cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. This includes May JOLTS job openings, June ADP employment change (Automatic Data Processing), weekly jobless filings for the week ending 28 June, and, of course, the June jobs report, which will be released on Thursday due to US markets closing in observance of Independence Day.
By EBC
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reached all-time highs on Friday, fueled by renewed AI enthusiasm and expectations of looser monetary policy.
Gold dips toward $3,250 as risk sentiment improves and safe-haven demand fades. EUR/USD and GBP/USD stay firm above 1.1700 and 1.3700, while USD/CAD weakens to 1.3650 on rising oil and trade hopes. Trump's renewed Fed criticism shakes USD sentiment ahead of key inflation and GDP data this week.
By Octa
WTI Oil remains flat near $65 after its worst week in years.
The ceasefire in the Middle East has triggered a $12 sell-off on WTI prices.
The weak global economic outlook, coupled with expectations of supply hikes, is weighing on Crude.
By EBC
Australia's economic growth slows, with May consumer prices at a three-and-a-half-year low and rate cut expectations rising.
By EBC
Oil was set to trim gains as Middle East risks eased, but prices rose Friday due to higher US fuel demand during the summer driving season.
WTI crude nears $75 on strong US inventory draw, boosting risk sentiment. The US Dollar remains weak amid Fed independence fears, lifting AUD/USD to 0.6880 and EUR/USD near 1.1700. USD/JPY retreats while USD/CNY stays steady on a firmer PBOC fix. Focus shifts to US PCE data and global central bank commentary.
By EBC
The Chinese yuan hit its highest level since November 2024, amid concerns over the Fed's independence and U.S. monetary policy.
The US Dollar plunges to 3-year lows on June 26 amid concerns over Fed independence. Gold climbs near $3,360, GBP/USD hits multi-year highs above 1.3700, and EUR/JPY nears an 11-month peak. Risk pairs like AUD/JPY stay firm, while USD/INR remains volatile. Focus turns to Fed commentary and US inflation data for direction.
By EBC
US stocks surged over 1% on Tuesday after a fragile Israel-Iran truce, with Fed Chair Powell's testimony on the central bank's future in focus.
WTI dips below $65 as the Israel-Iran ceasefire eases supply fears. Gold slips under $3,350 while silver holds near $36. Risk-on sentiment lifts AUD/USD to 0.6850 and keeps GBP/USD above 1.3600. Focus shifts to US GDP, inflation data, and oil inventories for the next market move.
By EBC
Oil prices dropped to a one-week low on Tuesday after Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, easing concerns over supply disruption.
On June 24, 2025, a surprise Israel-Iran ceasefire sparks a global risk rally. The US Dollar dips below 98.50, silver steadies near $36.00, and AUD/USD climbs to 0.6825. USD/JPY drops below 145.60, and crude oil plunges to $65.00. Market focus shifts to US confidence data, China signals, and Fed policy outlook.
Markets remain mixed as gold dips to $3,355.60 and silver pauses near $36.00 amid a firm USD. GBP rebounds on stable UK data, while the yen weakens, pushing USD/JPY higher. Traders watch US Consumer Confidence, Canada Retail Sales, and tariff updates for fresh direction.
By FP Markets
‘Wait and see’ seems to be the dominant sentiment for both US President Donald Trump and the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
By EBC
Rising demand for gold as a safe haven has driven a 30% increase this year, surpassing traditional assets like the yen and Swiss franc.
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