Most Asian stock markets saw gains as Trump indicated a willingness to continue trade discussions, providing a reprieve for investors after implementing significant tariffs on various nations. South Korean shares increased by more than 1.4%, and the Nikkei-225 index in Japan rose by 0.2%. The MSCI regional stock index edged up 0.1% after oscillating between minor gains and losses earlier in the day. The South Korean Won appreciated, while the Dollar index decreased by 0.2%. The Euro strengthened following reports that the US proposed a trade agreement with the EU featuring a 10% tariff cap. Yields on Japan's 30-year government bonds continued to increase. On Monday, Trump stated he remained receptive to negotiations and postponed the implementation of higher tariffs until at least August 1st, easing investor concerns. Stock prices have bounced back from their April lows, when the broad tariffs were first announced, driven by optimism that the deadline for the tariffs might be extended, given Trump’s pattern of making threats and then retreating. At the same time, Japan's long-term bonds saw further declines on Tuesday, pushing the 30-year bond yield closer to an all-time high amid ongoing political uncertainties impacting the nation's financial markets. Australia's central bank surprised both investors and economists on Tuesday by maintaining interest rates at their current level, indicating a cautious stance on policy amidst global uncertainties fuelled by US tariff proposals. The Reserve Bank kept its key interest rate at 3.85%, a decision that only five out of 32 economists had anticipated, leaving traders caught off guard as well. The RBA has implemented two rate cuts in its ongoing easing cycle, and there is ongoing debate among economists regarding the potential for further easing due to the tight labour market and sluggish productivity growth.
The July Eurozone Sentix survey has highlighted a notable improvement in economic confidence, with the sentiment reading climbing to +4.5, its highest level since early 2022. Although the current situation remains in negative territory at -7.3, this marks the best performance in over two years. Expectations have rebounded following earlier uncertainties caused by tariffs. This trend aligns with patterns observed in other reliable indicators, such as the IFO index, and reflects the gradual recovery and stabilisation seen in PMI indices, particularly in manufacturing. While distortions persist as production adapts to circumvent trade barriers—suggesting potential adjustments in the coming weeks and months—the overall Eurozone outlook appears increasingly stable. Confidence is being bolstered by accommodative monetary policies and fiscal measures, with Germany at the forefront, though spillover effects are benefiting the broader Eurozone, including its defence initiatives. External trade pressures, such as US tariffs and competition from China—which is advancing up the value chain—remain challenges. However, a stronger domestic demand narrative provides a timely counterbalance. The improvement in confidence indices is likely to reinforce belief in the region's economic resilience.
Today's macro highlights include : NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, New York Fed Inflation Expectations, U.S. Consumer Credit Data, and ECB's Nagel Speaks.
Overnight Headlines
ECB’s Villeroy: QE Is Best Unconventional Policy Tool
EU Avoids US Tariff Letter, Eyes Concessions In Deal Talks
Japan, S. Korea Push For Lower US Tariffs As Deadline Moves To Aug 1
Tesla Loses $68B As Musk Launches ‘America Party’
Samsung Hit By US Chip Controls, AI Memory Woes
RBA Holds OCR At 3.85%, Unchanged
Shein Files For HK IPO To Pressure UK Over London Listing
Houthis Claim First Ship Sinking Of Year In Red Sea Attack
Exxon Sees $1.5B Earnings Hit On Lower Oil, Gas Prices
CoreWeave To Acquire Core Scientific In $9B AI Power Deal
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD:1.1650-55 (759M), 1.1675-80 (882M), 1.1700 (2.5BLN)
1.1720-25 (554M), 1.1750-55 (348M), 1.1770-80 (792M), 1.1800-10 (1.1BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.7850 (300M), 0.8000 (315M)
GBP/USD: 1.3700 (248M), 1.3750-55 (374M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8630 (200M), 0.8670 (251M)
AUD/USD: 0.6475 (901M), 0.6500 (208M), 0.6535-45 (695M), 0.6580-90 (877M)
NZD/USD: 0.6025 (304M). AUD/NZD: 1.0800 (276M)
USD/CAD: 1.3565-70 (388M), 1.3725 (252M)
USD/JPY: 145.00-15 (557M), 145.70 (211M), 146.50 (950M)
CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending July 4th
Speculators have raised the net short position in CBOT US Treasury bonds futures by 2,672 contracts to a total of 104,457. They have also increased the net short position in CBOT US Ultrabond Treasury futures by 17,436 contracts, bringing it to 226,962. The net short position in CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures has been increased by 103,531 contracts, resulting in a total of 783,662. The CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position has grown by 13,373 contracts to 2,477,002, while the CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position is up by 50,444 contracts, totaling 1,280,648.
Equity fund managers have boosted their net long position in S&P 500 CME by 3,352 contracts, reaching 844,576. Conversely, equity fund speculators have increased their net short position in S&P 500 CME by 29,824 contracts to 298,864.
The Japanese yen net long position stands at 127,338 contracts, the Euro's at 107,537 contracts, the British pound's at 31,399 contracts, and the Swiss franc shows a net short position of -23,853 contracts. Bitcoin has a net short position of -1,756 contracts..
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Pivot 5995
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 5995 target 6300
Below 5938 target 5800
EURUSD Pivot 1.1630
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 1.1630 target 1.19
Below 1.1490 target 1.12
GBPUSD Pivot 1.3522
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 1.3522 target 1.38
Below 1.34 target 1.3270
USDJPY Pivot 147
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 145.18 target 147.50
Below 144.76 target 139
XAUUSD Pivot 3365
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Above 3420 target 3600
Below 3240 target 3000
BTCUSD Pivot 105k
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 105k target 118k
Below 98.3K target 95.5kDaily Market Outlook, July 8, 2025
Most Asian stock markets saw gains as Trump indicated a willingness to continue trade discussions, providing a reprieve for investors after implementing significant tariffs on various nations. South Korean shares increased by more than 1.4%, and the Nikkei-225 index in Japan rose by 0.2%. The MSCI regional stock index edged up 0.1% after oscillating between minor gains and losses earlier in the day. The South Korean Won appreciated, while the Dollar index decreased by 0.2%. The Euro strengthened following reports that the US proposed a trade agreement with the EU featuring a 10% tariff cap. Yields on Japan's 30-year government bonds continued to increase. On Monday, Trump stated he remained receptive to negotiations and postponed the implementation of higher tariffs until at least August 1st, easing investor concerns. Stock prices have bounced back from their April lows, when the broad tariffs were first announced, driven by optimism that the deadline for the tariffs might be extended, given Trump’s pattern of making threats and then retreating. At the same time, Japan's long-term bonds saw further declines on Tuesday, pushing the 30-year bond yield closer to an all-time high amid ongoing political uncertainties impacting the nation's financial markets. Australia's central bank surprised both investors and economists on Tuesday by maintaining interest rates at their current level, indicating a cautious stance on policy amidst global uncertainties fuelled by US tariff proposals. The Reserve Bank kept its key interest rate at 3.85%, a decision that only five out of 32 economists had anticipated, leaving traders caught off guard as well. The RBA has implemented two rate cuts in its ongoing easing cycle, and there is ongoing debate among economists regarding the potential for further easing due to the tight labour market and sluggish productivity growth.
The July Eurozone Sentix survey has highlighted a notable improvement in economic confidence, with the sentiment reading climbing to +4.5, its highest level since early 2022. Although the current situation remains in negative territory at -7.3, this marks the best performance in over two years. Expectations have rebounded following earlier uncertainties caused by tariffs. This trend aligns with patterns observed in other reliable indicators, such as the IFO index, and reflects the gradual recovery and stabilisation seen in PMI indices, particularly in manufacturing. While distortions persist as production adapts to circumvent trade barriers—suggesting potential adjustments in the coming weeks and months—the overall Eurozone outlook appears increasingly stable. Confidence is being bolstered by accommodative monetary policies and fiscal measures, with Germany at the forefront, though spillover effects are benefiting the broader Eurozone, including its defence initiatives. External trade pressures, such as US tariffs and competition from China—which is advancing up the value chain—remain challenges. However, a stronger domestic demand narrative provides a timely counterbalance. The improvement in confidence indices is likely to reinforce belief in the region's economic resilience.
Today's macro highlights include : NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, New York Fed Inflation Expectations, U.S. Consumer Credit Data, and ECB's Nagel Speaks.
Overnight Headlines
ECB’s Villeroy: QE Is Best Unconventional Policy Tool
EU Avoids US Tariff Letter, Eyes Concessions In Deal Talks
Japan, S. Korea Push For Lower US Tariffs As Deadline Moves To Aug 1
Tesla Loses $68B As Musk Launches ‘America Party’
Samsung Hit By US Chip Controls, AI Memory Woes
RBA Holds OCR At 3.85%, Unchanged
Shein Files For HK IPO To Pressure UK Over London Listing
Houthis Claim First Ship Sinking Of Year In Red Sea Attack
Exxon Sees $1.5B Earnings Hit On Lower Oil, Gas Prices
CoreWeave To Acquire Core Scientific In $9B AI Power Deal
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD:1.1650-55 (759M), 1.1675-80 (882M), 1.1700 (2.5BLN)
1.1720-25 (554M), 1.1750-55 (348M), 1.1770-80 (792M), 1.1800-10 (1.1BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.7850 (300M), 0.8000 (315M)
GBP/USD: 1.3700 (248M), 1.3750-55 (374M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8630 (200M), 0.8670 (251M)
AUD/USD: 0.6475 (901M), 0.6500 (208M), 0.6535-45 (695M), 0.6580-90 (877M)
NZD/USD: 0.6025 (304M). AUD/NZD: 1.0800 (276M)
USD/CAD: 1.3565-70 (388M), 1.3725 (252M)
USD/JPY: 145.00-15 (557M), 145.70 (211M), 146.50 (950M)
CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending July 4th
Speculators have raised the net short position in CBOT US Treasury bonds futures by 2,672 contracts to a total of 104,457. They have also increased the net short position in CBOT US Ultrabond Treasury futures by 17,436 contracts, bringing it to 226,962. The net short position in CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures has been increased by 103,531 contracts, resulting in a total of 783,662. The CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position has grown by 13,373 contracts to 2,477,002, while the CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position is up by 50,444 contracts, totaling 1,280,648.
Equity fund managers have boosted their net long position in S&P 500 CME by 3,352 contracts, reaching 844,576. Conversely, equity fund speculators have increased their net short position in S&P 500 CME by 29,824 contracts to 298,864.
The Japanese yen net long position stands at 127,338 contracts, the Euro's at 107,537 contracts, the British pound's at 31,399 contracts, and the Swiss franc shows a net short position of -23,853 contracts. Bitcoin has a net short position of -1,756 contracts..
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Pivot 5995
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 5995 target 6300
Below 5938 target 5800
EURUSD Pivot 1.1630
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 1.1630 target 1.19
Below 1.1490 target 1.12
GBPUSD Pivot 1.3522
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 1.3522 target 1.38
Below 1.34 target 1.3270
USDJPY Pivot 147
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 145.18 target 147.50
Below 144.76 target 139
XAUUSD Pivot 3365
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Above 3420 target 3600
Below 3240 target 3000
BTCUSD Pivot 105k
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Above 105k target 118k
Below 98.3K target 95.5kPublication date:
2025-07-08 13:06:38 (GMT)
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