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NAS100 Edges Higher Near 30,850 as Weak Jobs Data Cuts Fed Hike Bets

Key Takeaways -NAS100 trades near 30,853.50, up 0.08%, consolidating around the 30,850-30,860 area. -September NFP came in at +29K against +90K expected, with August revised down to +133K and unemployment rising to 4.2%. -The probability of an October Fed hike fell to around 22.7%, from 64.2% a week earlier. -The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.19% on Friday to close at 27,190.86, led by Tesla (+4.7%) and Nvidia (+1.3%). -Traders are watching 31,000 as resistance, with 30,800 and 30,000 as key support levels. NAS100 is consolidating just below the 31,000 level after opening at 30,869.21 and ranging between a session high of 31,013.25 and a low of 30,828.25. On the tick chart, a push towards 30,880 was quickly reversed, while buyers stepped in after an earlier dip towards 30,830. Price is trading close to, and slightly below, its 9-period moving average, pointing to softer short-term momentum. Why Traders Are Watching NAS100 The weak September jobs report has changed rate expectations. With payrolls at 29K and unemployment up to 4.2%, the odds of an October Fed hike dropped sharply. Lower rate expectations tend to support tech and growth stocks, whose valuations are sensitive to borrowing costs. Friday's rally in Tesla and Nvidia showed that effect in action. The key question is whether this is a lasting shift or a one-day reaction. A cooling labour market supports the case for a more patient Fed, but US inflation data and Fed commentary could quickly change that view. Key factors influencing NAS100 include: -Federal Reserve policy: Rate hike expectations remain the main driver of risk appetite and tech valuations. -US inflation data: Softer readings could reinforce the case against a hike, while a hot print could revive it. -Mega-cap tech strength: Continued gains in names like Nvidia and Tesla can lift the wider index. -Labour market signals: Weak jobs data supports easier policy but could become a concern if investors read it as slowing growth. Key Trading Levels NAS100 is trading around 30,853.50 after a previous close of 30,828.30. The index has climbed steadily since early August, but volume has been steady rather than spiking, so confirmation matters near resistance. The 31,000 level is the key resistance. Traders may wait for a daily close above it before treating the move as a breakout. On the downside, 30,800 is the first area to watch. A retreat there could still be viewed as a pullback within the broader trend if buyers defend it. A deeper move would put 30,000 to the test, and a daily close below it would weaken the current structure and expose 29,000. NAS100 Prediction: Can the Index Break Above 31,000? The near-term bias is cautiously bullish while NAS100 holds above 30,000. Soft US inflation data or dovish Fed commentary would reinforce the case against a hike, and a daily close above 31,000 could draw in momentum buyers. However, a hot inflation print or hawkish Fed comments could quickly bring rate hike expectations back into focus, sending the index towards 30,000 and potentially 29,000. Labour market weakness could also weigh on tech if investors begin to see it as evidence of slowing growth rather than a signal for easier policy. For a deeper analysis of NAS100's technical levels, macro catalysts and potential scenarios, click the learn more button below.

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Publication date:

2026-10-05 08:07:47 (GMT)

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