Liquidity and Scarcity
Global liquidity continues to expand at a record pace. Central banks are injecting trillions into financial systems to cover widening deficits and cushion weaker growth.
The United States has already run a federal deficit exceeding one trillion dollars in just nine months, pushing money supply to fresh highs.
When currencies lose purchasing power under this pressure, traders pivot toward scarce assets. Gold has long been the hedge of choice, but Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million gives it a digital scarcity that resonates with traders seeking protection.
At a market capitalisation of 2.3 trillion dollars, Bitcoin is still only a fraction of gold’s 23 trillion. This gap underlines both the potential upside and the risks.
With real yields suppressed by sticky inflation and easing policies, conditions favour alternative assets. Yet a reversal in central bank policy could rapidly shift the balance, underscoring why the forecast remains cautious.
Institutional Inflows
Institutions are leading this cycle. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds launched in the United States have attracted more than $100 billion within months.
August marked another turning point when the U.S. government authorised crypto allocations in 401(k) retirement plans, unlocking trillions in household savings.
Major asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity are preparing retirement-friendly crypto products, embedding digital assets into the structure of long-term savings.
This inflow is different from speculative surges of the past. It represents patient, regulated, and sticky capital. While this could help dampen volatility, it also depends on political stability.
Any shift in regulatory or legislative tone could slow momentum, leaving the outlook balanced between opportunity and caution.
Retail on the Sidelines
Retail traders, who once fuelled parabolic rallies, remain quiet. App downloads for Coinbase and Robinhood are subdued, and Google searches for crypto lag behind previous peaks.
This is striking given Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500 fivefold in the past year. The muted retail presence suggests latent demand, a pool of traders waiting for a spark.
If headlines of record highs or corporate adoption hit mainstream attention, retail flows could return with force. With ETFs and fintech apps lowering barriers, participation has never been easier.
The forecast is that retail interest will eventually re-emerge, but it is likely to bring the volatility of earlier cycles back into play.
Regulation Clears the Runway
The regulatory backdrop is also shifting. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission recently simplified rules for launching commodity-based ETFs, explicitly including digital assets.
Exchanges such as Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, and Cboe can now list funds far more quickly, cutting out the protracted review process.
Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund, holding Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, has already benefited.
This opens the door for a wave of ETFs tied to multiple cryptocurrencies, giving institutions new channels for allocation and retail traders easier access through familiar brokerage accounts.
The cautious outlook is that more products will increase capital flows, though demand could spread thin if too many options arrive at once.
Market Movements This Week
While central banks and data releases provide the backdrop, traders are already weighing the technical picture across FX, commodities, and equities.
The past week delivered sharp swings in the dollar, steady pressure in gold, and a mixed performance in equities, leaving key levels in focus as markets brace for direction.
The dollar index is holding near 96.60, with bullish setups possible if consolidation continues.
EURUSD risks slipping below 1.17932, while GBPUSD faces pressure near 1.3540, with 1.3515 and 1.3605 also in play.
USDJPY broke the 146.298 swing low before rebounding, leaving 147.00–147.35 as key levels to monitor.
USDCHF is building support at 0.7915–0.7890, while AUDUSD and NZDUSD remain under pressure near 0.6640 and 0.5900–0.5920 respectively. USDCAD could break higher through 1.37666 or attract buyers near 1.3700.
Oil is balanced at 62.40, or 61.825 if it breaks lower. Gold retains scope toward 3740, 3810, and 3835, while supports sit at 3590 and 3550.
Natural gas stays weak after breaking 2.84, with 2.95–2.98 acting as short-term resistance. The S&P 500 is aiming for 6750 and 6840, though stretched valuations may weigh.
Bitcoin is consolidating after trading down from 118,050, with 112,650 the next area to test.
Key Events This Week
The week begins in Australia, where RBA Governor Michele Bullock is due to speak on Monday, 22 September. Markets will listen closely for any hints that the central bank is leaning toward cutting rates. With growth slowing and external headwinds mounting, even a small shift in language could move the Australian dollar.
On Tuesday, 23 September, attention turns to the UK, where Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is expected to speak. Most analysts see no further cuts from the BoE this year, and traders will be watching closely to see whether his remarks confirm that stance.
The same day brings a heavy run of flash PMIs. In Germany, manufacturing is forecast at 50.0 versus 48.8 previously, while services are seen at 49.5 versus 49.3.
For the eurozone, manufacturing is expected at 47.2 versus 47.0, and services at 53.6 compared with 54.2 prior. The UK’s own releases are forecast at 47.2 for manufacturing and 53.6 for services. In the US, manufacturing is projected at 51.8 versus 53.0 previously, with services at 53.8 compared with 54.5. These figures will provide a crucial test of global momentum after the softer US jobs report raised expectations for Fed cuts.
Midweek on Wednesday, 24 September, the calendar is quiet, offering markets a pause to digest the PMI releases before the next round of central bank decisions.
Thursday, 25 September, sees the Swiss National Bank policy decision, with the rate expected to remain steady at 2.15 percent. Later in the day, the US publishes its final Q2 GDP print, with forecasts unchanged at 3.30 percent. While the headline is steady, traders will be combing through the details for clues on underlying demand.
The week concludes on Friday, 26 September, with the release of the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. A reading of 0.2 percent month-on-month versus 0.3 percent previously would reinforce expectations that the central bank could cut rates twice before the end of the year. An upside surprise, however, could challenge that view and slow the dollar’s recent decline.
Next week brings further tests, with the RBA cash rate, US JOLTS job openings, and the key non-farm payrolls report on October 3. These releases will be decisive in shaping central bank expectations into the final quarter of the year.Week Ahead: Coins Take Centre Stage
Liquidity and Scarcity
Global liquidity continues to expand at a record pace. Central banks are injecting trillions into financial systems to cover widening deficits and cushion weaker growth.
The United States has already run a federal deficit exceeding one trillion dollars in just nine months, pushing money supply to fresh highs.
When currencies lose purchasing power under this pressure, traders pivot toward scarce assets. Gold has long been the hedge of choice, but Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million gives it a digital scarcity that resonates with traders seeking protection.
At a market capitalisation of 2.3 trillion dollars, Bitcoin is still only a fraction of gold’s 23 trillion. This gap underlines both the potential upside and the risks.
With real yields suppressed by sticky inflation and easing policies, conditions favour alternative assets. Yet a reversal in central bank policy could rapidly shift the balance, underscoring why the forecast remains cautious.
Institutional Inflows
Institutions are leading this cycle. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds launched in the United States have attracted more than $100 billion within months.
August marked another turning point when the U.S. government authorised crypto allocations in 401(k) retirement plans, unlocking trillions in household savings.
Major asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity are preparing retirement-friendly crypto products, embedding digital assets into the structure of long-term savings.
This inflow is different from speculative surges of the past. It represents patient, regulated, and sticky capital. While this could help dampen volatility, it also depends on political stability.
Any shift in regulatory or legislative tone could slow momentum, leaving the outlook balanced between opportunity and caution.
Retail on the Sidelines
Retail traders, who once fuelled parabolic rallies, remain quiet. App downloads for Coinbase and Robinhood are subdued, and Google searches for crypto lag behind previous peaks.
This is striking given Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500 fivefold in the past year. The muted retail presence suggests latent demand, a pool of traders waiting for a spark.
If headlines of record highs or corporate adoption hit mainstream attention, retail flows could return with force. With ETFs and fintech apps lowering barriers, participation has never been easier.
The forecast is that retail interest will eventually re-emerge, but it is likely to bring the volatility of earlier cycles back into play.
Regulation Clears the Runway
The regulatory backdrop is also shifting. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission recently simplified rules for launching commodity-based ETFs, explicitly including digital assets.
Exchanges such as Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, and Cboe can now list funds far more quickly, cutting out the protracted review process.
Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund, holding Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP, has already benefited.
This opens the door for a wave of ETFs tied to multiple cryptocurrencies, giving institutions new channels for allocation and retail traders easier access through familiar brokerage accounts.
The cautious outlook is that more products will increase capital flows, though demand could spread thin if too many options arrive at once.
Market Movements This Week
While central banks and data releases provide the backdrop, traders are already weighing the technical picture across FX, commodities, and equities.
The past week delivered sharp swings in the dollar, steady pressure in gold, and a mixed performance in equities, leaving key levels in focus as markets brace for direction.
The dollar index is holding near 96.60, with bullish setups possible if consolidation continues.
EURUSD risks slipping below 1.17932, while GBPUSD faces pressure near 1.3540, with 1.3515 and 1.3605 also in play.
USDJPY broke the 146.298 swing low before rebounding, leaving 147.00–147.35 as key levels to monitor.
USDCHF is building support at 0.7915–0.7890, while AUDUSD and NZDUSD remain under pressure near 0.6640 and 0.5900–0.5920 respectively. USDCAD could break higher through 1.37666 or attract buyers near 1.3700.
Oil is balanced at 62.40, or 61.825 if it breaks lower. Gold retains scope toward 3740, 3810, and 3835, while supports sit at 3590 and 3550.
Natural gas stays weak after breaking 2.84, with 2.95–2.98 acting as short-term resistance. The S&P 500 is aiming for 6750 and 6840, though stretched valuations may weigh.
Bitcoin is consolidating after trading down from 118,050, with 112,650 the next area to test.
Key Events This Week
The week begins in Australia, where RBA Governor Michele Bullock is due to speak on Monday, 22 September. Markets will listen closely for any hints that the central bank is leaning toward cutting rates. With growth slowing and external headwinds mounting, even a small shift in language could move the Australian dollar.
On Tuesday, 23 September, attention turns to the UK, where Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is expected to speak. Most analysts see no further cuts from the BoE this year, and traders will be watching closely to see whether his remarks confirm that stance.
The same day brings a heavy run of flash PMIs. In Germany, manufacturing is forecast at 50.0 versus 48.8 previously, while services are seen at 49.5 versus 49.3.
For the eurozone, manufacturing is expected at 47.2 versus 47.0, and services at 53.6 compared with 54.2 prior. The UK’s own releases are forecast at 47.2 for manufacturing and 53.6 for services. In the US, manufacturing is projected at 51.8 versus 53.0 previously, with services at 53.8 compared with 54.5. These figures will provide a crucial test of global momentum after the softer US jobs report raised expectations for Fed cuts.
Midweek on Wednesday, 24 September, the calendar is quiet, offering markets a pause to digest the PMI releases before the next round of central bank decisions.
Thursday, 25 September, sees the Swiss National Bank policy decision, with the rate expected to remain steady at 2.15 percent. Later in the day, the US publishes its final Q2 GDP print, with forecasts unchanged at 3.30 percent. While the headline is steady, traders will be combing through the details for clues on underlying demand.
The week concludes on Friday, 26 September, with the release of the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. A reading of 0.2 percent month-on-month versus 0.3 percent previously would reinforce expectations that the central bank could cut rates twice before the end of the year. An upside surprise, however, could challenge that view and slow the dollar’s recent decline.
Next week brings further tests, with the RBA cash rate, US JOLTS job openings, and the key non-farm payrolls report on October 3. These releases will be decisive in shaping central bank expectations into the final quarter of the year.Publication date:
2025-09-22 10:43:21 (GMT)
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