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Global Currencies Move on Mixed Economic Data and Policy | 21st November 2025

Currency Markets in Flux Today’s forex market action is defined by sharp moves among major currencies, as global economic data and central bank policy decisions drive volatility and shift investor sentiment. The US Dollar, Australian Dollar, Japanese Yen, Chinese Yuan, and Canadian Dollar all reacted to a mix of new reports and official statements, setting the tone for traders worldwide. US Dollar Index Forecast (DXY) Current Price and Context The US Dollar Index has declined to near 100.15 in Friday’s Asian session, marking renewed weakness after mixed US jobs data. Uncertainty around the US labor market and potential rate cuts is weighing on the greenback, with traders awaiting more clarity from upcoming PMI releases. Key Drivers Geopolitical Risks: No major new risks have impacted the DXY direction today. US Economic Data: The US saw faster job creation but a higher unemployment rate; recent data was delayed due to a government shutdown, adding more uncertainty. FOMC Outcome: Fed officials, including Cleveland’s Hammack, support keeping rates steady, with growing debate among members about balancing labor momentum and inflation. Trade Policy: No new trade developments affecting the dollar are reported. Monetary Policy: Current market odds of a Fed rate cut in December have dropped to 39%, down from 63% last week, signaling shifting expectations for easing. Technical Outlook Trend: The DXY shows a bearish bias, holding below key technical levels. Resistance: First upside resistance is seen at 100.50. Support: Immediate support sits at the 100.00 round number, with further downside possible. Forecast: Continued uncertainty and cautious Fed comments may keep the index under pressure, with risks tilted toward further declines if upcoming data disappoints. Sentiment and Catalysts Market Sentiment: Sentiment is cautious, with traders digesting mixed signals and waiting for further economic releases. Catalysts: The next PMI print and Fed commentary will be crucial for near-term dollar direction. Australian Dollar Forecast (AUD/USD) Current Price and Context The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounded against the US Dollar (USD), currently trading around 0.6450, following two days of losses. Gains came after stronger-than-expected S&P Global PMI data, which signaled robust expansion in both manufacturing and services for November. Key Drivers Geopolitical Risks: No significant new geopolitical developments are impacting the AUD today. US Economic Data: Stronger US labor market data lends underlying support to the USD, partially limiting AUD gains. FOMC Outcome: The Federal Reserve remains cautious about the timing and scale of future rate cuts, keeping US policy in focus for AUD/USD traders. Trade Policy: Stability in China’s loan prime rates and continued solid trade relations lend support to the AUD. Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain rates steady, with recent wage growth and high inflation dampening expectations for near-term easing. Technical Outlook Trend: AUD/USD is consolidating, with a mild bullish bias after rebounding from the lower end of its recent range. Resistance:Key resistance is seen at 0.6487 (nine-day EMA) and the psychological 0.6500 level. Support: Initial support lies near 0.6440, with further support at the five-month low of 0.6414. Forecast: Technicals favor more upside if AUD/USD can break above 0.6500; failure to do so risks renewed downside toward support levels. Sentiment and Catalysts Market Sentiment: Market participants are modestly positive on the AUD, buoyed by strong PMI numbers and resilient economic data from China. Catalysts: Upcoming Chinese economic releases, RBA commentary, and additional global PMI data will drive the next moves. Japanese Yen Forecast (USD/JPY) Current Price and Context The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades weaker, with USD/JPY recently at 157.25, reflecting ongoing pressure from central bank policy divergence. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted that Yen weakness is amplifying import costs and lifting consumer inflation to above-target levels. Key Drivers Geopolitical Risks: No major new external threats affecting JPY movement today. US Economic Data: Dollar movement continues to influence JPY crosses, but domestic drivers are stronger for now. FOMC Outcome: US policy outlook remains a background factor; higher-for-longer US rates sustain pressure on the Yen. Trade Policy: No significant new trade developments reported. Monetary Policy: The BoJ maintains a cautious stance after recently retreating from its ultra-loose stance, but is now more concerned about the inflationary impact of currency swings. Technical Outlook Trend: USD/JPY remains in a long-term uptrend but is showing some intraday pullback from recent highs. Resistance: Resistance is seen in the 158.00 area. Support: Nearby support lies at 157.00, with potential for further downside if risk sentiment improves. Forecast: The Yen may remain under pressure unless the BoJ signals more forceful intervention or market volatility increases. Sentiment and Catalysts Market Sentiment: Sentiment: Investors are wary of ongoing Yen weakness and the possibility of new BoJ measures if inflation accelerates. Catalysts: Upcoming BoJ statements, wage growth trends, and any government commentary on FX stability could spur further volatility. USD/CNY Forecast Current Price and Context The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the central reference rate for USD/CNY at 7.0875 on Friday, slightly appreciating the yuan from the previous day’s fix of 7.0905. This move comes as the PBOC continues to carefully manage the currency amid modest economic growth and ongoing financial market reforms. Key Drivers Geopolitical Risks: No immediate new geopolitical factors impacting today’s CNY setting, though general US-China relations remain a background concern. US Economic Data: The mixed outlook for the US Dollar has contributed to CNY’s minor fluctuations. FOMC Outcome: The dovish-to-neutral Fed tone affects broad USD flows but PBOC’s managed policy takes the lead here. Trade Policy: China continues to promote stability in the yuan amid efforts to boost trade and financial opening. Monetary Policy: The PBOC kept the rate below consensus estimates, signaling ongoing support for the local currency within a controlled band. Technical Outlook Trend: USD/CNY continues to trade within a carefully managed range, with the PBOC using daily fix adjustments to guide direction. Resistance: Next resistance lies in the 7.1150 area, a recent high. Support: Immediate support appears at the new central rate 7.0875, followed by the psychological round number at 7.0800. Forecast: The pair is likely to remain range-bound in the near term, unless there is a surprise shift in either US or Chinese economic policy. Sentiment and Catalysts Market Sentiment: The mood is cautious, with traders following official signals and watching for signs of further PBOC intervention. Catalysts: Upcoming China economic releases, global trade developments, and any shift in PBOC’s monetary stance could spur volatility. USD/CAD Forecast Current Price and Context The USD/CAD pair dipped below 1.4100 Friday, snapping a two-day rally and pulling back from a multi-week high. Despite the slight downside, the pair remains broadly supported by underlying US Dollar strength and softening Canadian inflation data. Key Drivers Geopolitical Risks: No major new geopolitical developments driving price action today. US Economic Data: Strong US Nonfarm Payroll data and a higher US Dollar Index continue to underpin USD strength. FOMC Outcome: Uncertainty around the Fed’s rate cut path remains a key focus, as traders assess evolving signals from US policymakers. Trade Policy: Not directly impacting USD/CAD at this time. Monetary Policy: Lower odds of a near-term Fed rate cut and the Bank of Canada’s steady stance support further USD resilience. Technical Outlook Trend: The pair retains a bullish medium-term trend, despite today’s intraday pullback. Resistance: First resistance is seen at 1.4150. Support: Key support is located at 1.4070, followed by 1.4000 round number. Forecast: Downside seems limited unless Canadian retail sales or US PMI data surprise to the upside; otherwise, expect broad USD strength to persist. Sentiment and Catalysts Market Sentiment: Sentiment remains bullish on USD, with lingering caution about further Canadian Dollar weakness due to poor inflation and falling oil prices. Catalysts: Key upcoming Canadian Retail Sales and US PMI releases, as well as any sharp moves in global oil prices. Wrap-up With currencies in flux and central banks closely watched, market participants are recalibrating their positions in response to shifting fundamentals. Stay tuned for further developments as new economic data and policy updates continue to steer direction in the global forex landscape. Ready to trade global markets with confidence? Join Moneta Markets today and unlock 1000+ instruments, ultra-fast execution, ECN spreads from 0.0 pips, and more! Start now with Moneta Markets!

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Publication date:

2025-11-21 07:39:34 (GMT)

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