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Week's main events (June 29 – July 03)

New reports of U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz radically change the market landscape and threaten the fragile ceasefire, inevitably restoring a high geopolitical risk premium across global markets. This new escalation instantly wipes out the deflationary effect of the recent resumption of Saudi tanker and Qatari LNG tender traffic, triggering a sharp reversal in WTI crude prices amid fears that Iran may directly block the transport corridor. From a macroeconomic perspective, the incident delivers a heavy blow to investor expectations in Europe and Asia, as a renewed surge in energy prices will intensify stagflation risks for the critically import‑dependent economies of the eurozone and Japan. In Europe, the central event will be the annual ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal, where speeches by Christine Lagarde and her colleagues will define the monetary outlook. However, the main market shock will fall on the U.S. dollar and risk assets toward the end of the week, when the United States releases the key June labor market report (Nonfarm Payrolls). This data, supplemented by JOLTS, ADP, and the ISM Manufacturing index, will either cement the position of dollar bulls expecting autumn tightening by the Federal Reserve or restore risk appetite, supporting the recently corrected Bitcoin and Gold. Monday, June 29 Monday’s session serves as a relatively quiet, low-volume entry point into a highly critical trading week. During the early Asian hours, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is undergoing a localized health check with the monthly Retail Sales print. This data offers an important look at how ordinary Japanese households are managing their purchasing power after months of compounding import costs. A strong print validates the BoJ’s rate normalization strategy, lifting the Yen. A miss below 2.5% signals spending fatigue and puts pressure on the currency. The marquee event of the day takes place late in the European evening, when ECB President Christine Lagarde delivers her opening address at the Sintra Forum. The Euro (EUR) heads into this window under notable structural pressure, having recently drifted to multi-month lows against a highly resilient US Dollar after Lagarde pared back near-term rate-hike expectations amid pockets of economic weakness across the single-currency block. Main events of the day: - Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED) - Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW) Tuesday, June 30 On Tuesday, the most critical events to monitor are the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings and U.S. CB Consumer Confidence, as they provide essential insights into the health of the world’s largest economy. For the JOLTS report, market consensus expects a decrease to 7.28 million from the previous 7.62 million. As a leading indicator of labor demand, a reading above this forecast would signal unexpected resilience in the job market, likely acting as a hawkish catalyst that supports the U.S. Dollar (USD) by suggesting that the Federal Reserve may maintain tighter policy for longer to curb wage-driven inflation. Regarding CB Consumer Confidence, analysts expect a slight rise in sentiment to 94.2 from the previous 93.1. Given that consumer spending constitutes roughly 70% of U.S. GDP, this report is vital for gauging economic momentum. A stronger-than-expected figure would likely boost the USD and potentially support equity indices such as the S&P 500, as it would confirm household optimism despite broader geopolitical and inflationary headwinds. Main events of the day: - Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED) - Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (LOW) - Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED) - China NBS Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED) - China Non NBS Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED) - German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED) - UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED) - Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3) – CHF (LOW) - German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED) - Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (MED) - US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED) - US JOLTS Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH) Wednesday, July 01 For Wednesday, the market focus will be dominated by high-impact U.S. labor and manufacturing data, alongside key policy remarks from major central banks. As for the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, consensus estimates point to a reading of 53.7, compared to the previous 54.0. This report is critical for gauging the health of the U.S. industrial sector. A result that meets or exceeds expectations would likely provide a boost to the U.S. Dollar (USD), as it suggests continued economic resilience, potentially limiting the urgency for Federal Reserve rate cuts. In Europe, with expectations set for a cooling to 3.1% from the previous 3.2%, the CPI release is pivotal for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy trajectory. Should the data confirm this deceleration, it may weigh on the Euro (EUR) by alleviating pressure on the ECB to maintain a hawkish stance. The convergence of speeches by leaders of the Federal Reserve, ECB, and Bank of England at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra creates a uniquely high-volatility environment. Because this forum gathers the world’s most influential central bankers to discuss the long-term outlook for growth, stability, and monetary policy, market participants view these sessions as high-conviction signals rather than routine communication. When top officials speak simultaneously or in quick succession, they often set the tone for global risk sentiment, making it a critical window for institutional rebalancing. Main events of the day: - Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED) - Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED) - Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED) - China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED) - Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3) – CHF (LOW) - Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED) - German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED) - Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED) - UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED) - Eurozone Inflation Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED) - US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3) – USD (MED) - Canada BOC Gov Macklem Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3) – CAD (HIGH) - Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (HIGH) - UK BoE Gov Bailey Speech Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (HIGH) - US Fed Chair Warsh Speech Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH) - US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH) - Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED) - US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – WTI (HIGH) Thursday, July 02 For Thursday, the primary focus is unequivocally the U.S. employment situation, which has been moved up from the usual Friday release to accommodate the Independence Day holiday. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings data are critical, as they will serve as the final major gauge of labor market health before the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Markets are currently forecasting a moderation to approximately 110,000–114,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. A stronger-than-expected print would likely fuel hawkish sentiment regarding Fed policy, bolstering the U.S. Dollar (USD), whereas any significant weakness could trigger a flight to safety as concerns over economic cooling intensify. The Swiss Inflation Rate also warrants close attention, as high-impact data from the Swiss National Bank’s jurisdiction often creates ripples across European markets and influences the safe-haven status of the Swiss Franc (CHF). Given that the broader market will be operating on a shortened trading week leading into the U.S. holiday, liquidity conditions may become increasingly thin as the day progresses. Main events of the day: - Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED) - Switzerland Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3) – CHF (HIGH) - Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED) - US Initial Jobless Claims (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED) - US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH) - US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH) - US Average Hourly Earnings (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH) - Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3) – CAD(MED) - US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – XNG (HIGH) Friday, July 03 On Friday, the market focus shifts to the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data across the Eurozone and the UK, which will provide critical confirmation of the services sector’s resilience or contraction. As the services sector accounts for a significant share of these advanced economies, any deviation from consensus forecasts, where a reading above 50 signals expansion and below 50 indicates contraction, will likely trigger immediate volatility in the EUR/GBP pair. It’s a bank holiday in the United States. Main events of the day: - Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED) - Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED) - China RatingDog Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED) - German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED) - Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED) - Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 11:30 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW) - UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED) - UK BoE Gov Bailey Speech Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (LOW)

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Publication date:

2026-06-29 10:31:13 (GMT)

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