Week ahead: US Jobs data is in focus
By FP Markets
The week ahead welcomes a slew of key US employment metrics, which may further increase the odds of additional cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. This includes May JOLTS job openings, June ADP employment change (Automatic Data Processing), weekly jobless filings for the week ending 28 June, and, of course, the June jobs report, which will be released on Thursday due to US markets closing in observance of Independence Day.
Week ahead: US data and Powell in the spotlight
By FP Markets
‘Wait and see’ seems to be the dominant sentiment for both US President Donald Trump and the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
First Light News: Trump announces timeline on possible Iran strike; BoE dovish tilt
By FP Markets
Good morning, everyone,
While attacks from both sides in the Israel-Iran conflict continued overnight, US President Donald Trump, like the US Federal Reserve, appears to have adopted a ‘wait-and-see’ stance for now in terms of whether the US will get involved.
According to a statement from the President, relayed by White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt: ‘Based on the fact that there is a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks’.
Leavitt emphasised that any diplomatic agreement must guarantee that Iran cannot enrich uranium or develop a nuclear weapon.
A two-week window for diplomacy?
Despite earlier gains, Brent Crude prices have fallen around 2.0% today amid the two-week window offered by Trump regarding the Israel-Iran situation, essentially leaving the door open for a diplomatic resolution to avert major escalation.
Additionally, the UK and European counterparts are heading to Geneva today for talks with Iran to press for a diplomatic solution. The big question, of course, is whether this meeting will be enough to sway Trump. How these talks will change the direction of the narrative we are currently on is a tricky one to answer, I believe. However, they may provide a clearer ‘general level’ of understanding about where Iran is positioned.
Another point to consider is that the two-week window remains somewhat arbitrary; we do not have a fixed date, and let’s be frank, Trump has used the ‘two-week’ phrase on several occasions in the past. Beyond this, it remains uncertain.
BoE holds steady, but vote split takes a dovish tilt
In a more divided vote than expected, the Bank of England (BoE) maintained the bank rate at 4.25% amid geopolitical uncertainty yesterday. The decision to hold, along with the central bank’s ongoing commitment to a ‘careful and gradual’ approach, raised very few eyebrows.
Despite this, markets are pricing in an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point (bp) cut at August’s meeting. However, this is by no means certain; I feel that things can shift before then. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey commented that he ‘expects that the path of interest rates will continue to be gradually downwards’. Nevertheless, he cautioned that he was not providing a ‘prediction for August by saying that’.
Six out of the nine Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members voted to leave the rate unchanged, while Swati Dhingra, Dave Ramsden and Alan Taylor voted to reduce the bank rate by 25 bps, to 4.00%. This was more divided than the market had expected; Refinitiv data indicated a 7-2 vote.
The move to hold rates comes despite considerable disinflation over the past two years, from a peak of 11.1% in October 2022 to 3.4% in May 2025 based on a year-on-year measure. The MPC noted that UK GDP growth (Gross Domestic Product) remains weak and the labour market continues to loosen. While pay growth is moderating and expected to slow further, inflation, as noted above, increased in May, primarily due to regulated prices and past increases in energy costs. Inflation is expected to remain at current levels for the remainder of the year, before gradually falling back towards the 2.0% target in 2026.
Despite progress, the MPC is keeping a close eye on elevated global uncertainty, particularly rising energy prices stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. The MPC stressed that monetary policy is not on a preset path and will continue to be restrictive to squeeze out persistent inflationary pressures.
Aside from UK retail sales data, which dropped in the last hour, the upcoming docket is reasonably light in terms of tier-1 events. UK retail sales numbers experienced a considerable drop, falling 2.7% in May – marking the largest decline since late 2023 – and reversing a 1.3% gain seen in April. Food stores’ sales volume saw a notable decrease, dropping 5.0%, as shown in the table below, down from a 4.7% gain, which was its largest monthly decline since mid-2021.
I am still closely watching the daily resistance between £0.8567 and £0.8546 on the EUR/GBP (euro versus the British pound) for a potential breakout move higher. While bears made a show yesterday, I feel that the said resistance remains in a vulnerable position, as I briefly described yesterday:
The EUR/GBP is currently trading at daily resistance between £0.8567 and £0.8546, an area complemented by monthly trendline resistance, drawn from the high of £0.9504. The caveat here is the lack of follow-through selling beyond monthly support at £0.8229-£0.8315, which signals buyers could be gaining strength. With that said, a breakout beyond the daily resistance zone underlined above could trigger a move towards daily resistance at £0.8616.
Charts created using Trading View
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron HillWeek ahead: Tariffs and US jobs data in the spotlight
By FP Markets
The beginning of the week kicked off with US President Donald Trump recommending a 50% levy on the European Union (EU), effective 1 June, claiming that the EU ‘has ‘been very difficult to deal with’. However, following a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Trump agreed to extend the deadline to 9 July.
Week ahead: Tariffs and US Data in the spotlight
By FP Markets
It was a holiday-shortened week for many in the markets, as most financial centres closed their doors in observance of the Easter weekend. Despite this, and while everything could change with a social media post, there was a noticeable softening in the stance on trade between the US and China.
Index and Commodities Trading week beginning 14 / 04 / 2025
By FP Markets
The Index has demonstrated a solid recovery, marked by a robust candle formation that has successfully closed above the significant August 2021 high of 7,632 points. This achievement signals a noteworthy rebound from the retest low towards 7120, this could indicate renewed upward momentum in this volatile market. Breaking through this key resistance level not only highlights the strength of the recovery but also underscores the potential for continued bullish sentiment among investors.
Week Ahead: Tariffs and US Data Eyed
By FP Markets
Risk-off sentiment dominated flow last week following US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement, an event he described as ‘Liberation Day’. However, while I cannot speak for everyone, many are not feeling so liberated, with forecasts for growth and inflation upended, as well as economists forecasting a possible global recession.
Week Ahead: Tariff Risks and Macro Themes Ahead
By FP Markets
Another month has nearly passed, and just like that, we find ourselves in Q2 25. The week ahead promises to be eventful, with the majority of focus on US President Donald Trump’s so-called ‘Liberation Day’ on 2 April.
Week Ahead: Inflation Data on the Radar
By FP Markets
The week ahead provides plenty to get our teeth into ahead of 2 April. This is a date many will have jotted down, a day when US President Donald Trump intends to introduce broad reciprocal tariffs, which, according to him, will be a ‘liberating day for America’.
What Are Markets Watching This Week?
By FP Markets
US President Donald Trump turned up the heat on the tariff front last week, which, honestly, is becoming hard to keep track of.
The Pattern Pulse – 27 February 2025
By FP Markets
The FP Markets Research Team scans the financial markets for you, highlighting clear and actionable technical structures.
RBA Poised to Reduce Cash Rate by 25 Basis Points
By FP Markets
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will meet this Tuesday and is widely anticipated to deliver its first rate cut in four years amid easing inflationary pressures.
The Pattern Pulse – 13 February 2025
By FP Markets
The FP Markets Research Team scans the financial markets for you, highlighting clear and actionable technical structures.
Forex: EUR/USD Ready to Whipsaw Above Resistance?
The Pattern Pulse – 6 February 2025
By FP Markets
The FP Markets Research Team scans the financial markets for you, highlighting clear and actionable technical structures.
Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
2025 Outlook: What is Next for Developed Economies and Currencies?
By FP Markets
What will shape the global economy and major currencies in 2025? From interest rates, inflation and jobs to US policy shifts under Trump, buckle up because it’s bound to be another exciting year ahead.
by Aaron Hill, Chief Market Analyst
BTC/USD Breaches US$100k: Where Next?
By FP Markets
BTC/USD (Bitcoin versus the US dollar) has made north of US$100,000 following a brief consolidation just beneath the number in the shape of a pennant pattern. Year to date, the major Crypto pair has risen by nearly 150%.
Following Donald Trump’s US election victory, BTC has strongly outperformed and, over the last 24 hours, received another boost on the back of Trump’s nomination of Paul Atkins for the role of chairing the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Atkins is an avid Crypto supporter.
Ichimoku Indicator: Bullish Signals
With price action trading beneath the Ichimoku’s Lagging Span (dark green at US$102,350), a widely recognised bullish signal, and the area between the Ichimoku’s Conversion (blue at US$97,389) and Base (red at US$85,405) Lines providing a clear support zone since late September, BTC/USD will likely remain a buyers’ market for the time being.
Also worth noting is the Ichimoku Cloud, which could offer support should the Ichimoku Conversion/Base Line support zone fail to hold. The Ichimoku Cloud is formed between the Leading Span A (light green at US$91,397) and the Leading Span B (light orange at US$81,448).
Price Direction?
Having seen BTC/USD climb above US$100,000, this level, coupled with the Ichimoku Conversion Line, could offer traders support if retested. However, it is likely that traders will position protective stop-loss orders beneath the Ichimoku Base Line to allow any retest some ‘breathing room’.
When Do US Elections Polls Close?
By FP Markets
Hundreds of millions of Americans head to the ballots today to vote for who they believe should be their next President: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. Although more than 81 million ballots have been cast early this year, most of the electorate will do so today, ultimately determining who will reside in the White House and control the Senate.
The Pattern Pulse – 24 October 2024
By FP Markets
Your weekly outlook of technical patterns and structure.
The FP Markets Research Team scans the financial markets for you, highlighting clear and actionable technical structures.
USD/CAD Powering Higher Ahead of Canadian CPI Numbers
By FP Markets
Month to date, the USD/CAD currency pair (US dollar versus the Canadian dollar) is up 2.0% and testing monthly highs.
EUR/GBP Eyeing Year-To-Date Lows
By FP Markets
The euro (EUR) versus the British pound (GBP) has been entrenched in a steady downtrend since late 2022, using the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) as dynamic resistance on several occasions.
EUR/JPY Closing in on 200-Day SMA
By FP Markets
Versus the Japanese yen (JPY), the US dollar (USD) is exploring terrain within the Ichimoku Cloud (formed by the Leading Span A at ¥160.10 [green] and the Leading Span B [orange] at ¥161.18). As you can see, sellers have recently displayed interest in the area despite not establishing much presence.
What is Happening with BTC/USD?
By FP Markets
BTC/USD Up 50% This Year
Bitcoin versus the US dollar (BTC/USD) has unquestionably been an outperformer. BTC/USD is up more than 50% year to date, and nearly 10% this month. However, we have to consider that the majority of the outperformance materialised in the first quarter of this year when the major crypto pairing hit an all-time high of US$73,845. Since then, buyers and sellers have been squaring off amid two descending limits between the said record peak and a low of US$56,478, commonly referred to as a descending channel among technical analysts.
The question is whether the descending channel is simply the pairing consolidating before printing another leg higher, or is it a sign of weakness that could eventually see the unit explore lower price levels.
Breakout Above Resistance?
Looking at the daily timeframe for a more magnified view, price action is seen testing resistance at US$63,791 and although sellers have made an appearance from the level, buyers remain strong. This follows a break above (and retest of) the 200-day simple moving average, currently circling around the US$59,085 region, which in itself is a bullish trend reversal signal.
Given the room to navigate higher on the weekly chart towards the upper boundary of the channel, a breakout above daily resistance should not raise too many eyebrows. Conservative traders attempting to trade any breakout higher will unlikely commit without a filter, such as a retest of the breached resistance to form support or even a ‘time’ filter (for example, the number of days price spends above the level).
GBP/USD Eyeing Lower Levels?
By FP Markets
Following economic activity in July stagnating for a second consecutive month, the focus was on the GBP/USD currency pair (British pound versus the US dollar).
Monthly Resistance
Technically, the trend remains to the upside for the pairing and recently reached a year-to-date high of US$1.3267.
Longer-term price action on the monthly timeframe is struggling to find acceptance above resistance at US$1.3111. Although recently breaching this resistance and spiking above the high of US$1.3142 (July 2023) helps confirm an uptrend, the fact price is struggling at the aforementioned resistance may concern prospective buyers.
Daily Decision Point Zone Breached
Knowing that monthly price is attempting to hold things below resistance, price action on the daily timeframe is seen navigating below a decision point zone at US$1.3081-US$1.3130. Should price clear willing bids around this area, further underperformance could be seen as far south as support coming in at US$1.2994.
H1 Ascending Channel In View
What’s interesting from a technical perspective is that H1 price is also currently working within the limits of an ascending channel between US$1.3049 and US$1.3087. Ultimately, should H1 action breakout below the said channel, coupled with what the monthly and daily timeframes are currently showing, this could trigger bearish interest towards the US$1.30 handle, closely shadowed by daily support from US$1.2994.
Week Ahead: What Are Markets Watching This Week?
By FP Markets
Dominant asset drivers to be aware of this week include Global PMIs and the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) rate announcement on Wednesday, the advance estimate for US GDP growth on Thursday and the US PCE Price Index on Friday.
The Pattern Pulse – 9 May 2024
By FP Markets
Your weekly outlook of technical patterns and structure.
The FP Markets Research Team scans the financial markets for you, highlighting clear and actionable technical structures.
The Pattern Pulse – 2 May 2024
By FP Markets
Your weekly outlook of technical patterns and structure.
The FP Markets Research Team scans the financial markets for you, highlighting clear and actionable technical structures.
The Pattern Pulse – 25 April 2024
By FP Markets
Your weekly outlook of technical patterns and structure.
The FP Markets Research Team scans the financial markets for you, highlighting clear and actionable technical structures.
Forex: GBP/USD Recoils from Noted Support, Targetting Resistance
GBP/USD Crossing Swords with Technical Confluence!
By FP Markets
Amidst a dovish repricing, according to the OIS curve, sterling is on the back foot against the majority of its G10 peers ahead of the US cash open, currently down -0.4% versus its US counterpart.
The Pattern Pulse—4 April 2024
By FP Markets
Your weekly outlook of technical patterns and structure.
The FP Markets Research Team scans the financial markets for you, highlighting clear and actionable technical structures.
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