5 Signals Vietnam’s Export Boom May Not Be As Smooth As It Seems
Vietnam is enjoying a record-breaking export year. From tropical fruits and seafood to high-demand wood products, the country is climbing global trade rankings. But beneath the impressive numbers, deeper issues are emerging — issues that traders cannot afford to overlook.
At EBC Financial Group, we believe success in today’s fast-moving markets demands more than just tracking growth figures. It requires a sharp eye on the friction points that can derail an otherwise profitable trade. Here are five signals that Vietnam’s export momentum, while impressive, carries hidden risks.
1. The Fruits of Labour Are Spoiling — Literally
Vietnam’s fruit exports are hitting new highs. In just the first seven months of 2025, fruit and vegetable exports surpassed USD3.8 billion, with durians, coconuts, dragon fruit, and lychees leading the pack. Durians alone brought in USD3.3 billion in 2024 and continued strongly with over USD360 million in June 2025.
Yet for all that success, the cracks are showing. Delays in export certification have turned opportunity into loss for many traders. Over 100 tonnes of GlobalGAP-certified dragon fruit spoiled after being stuck in storage for 20 days. An additional 50–70 tonnes still remain in cold storage without clearance. One major exporter, Son Tra Co. in Lam Đồng, was forced to dump 40 tonnes entirely, and slash prices on another 50 tonnes to as low as VND 1,000–2,000/kg — down from a market rate of VND 20,000/kg bound for the EU.
This is not just a logistics problem. It’s a profitability cliff.
2. Red Tape Is Undermining Global Demand
From Europe to China, demand for Vietnamese agricultural goods is booming. But the certification process, especially for perishable exports, is lagging behind. This creates what we call a “last-mile bottleneck” — the goods are ready, the buyers are ready, but the paperwork is not.
The consequences are significant. According to David Barrett, CEO of EBC Financial Group (UK) Ltd., "Vietnam is clearly winning in terms of trade visibility and sectoral growth. But traders must watch both the growth story and the friction points. The country's booming exports are becoming increasingly segmented — what's thriving abroad may still stumble at the border."
For traders involved in soft commodities or futures, this mismatch between market readiness and regulatory execution can introduce volatility that is hard to hedge.
3. The Wood Sector Is Winning — But Quietly
While fruit makes headlines, wood is the steady performer. In H1 2025, Vietnam’s wood exports reached USD8.21 billion, an 8.9% year-on-year increase. The U.S. alone accounted for 55.6% of shipments, followed by Japan and China.
What’s more, Vietnamese exporters are increasingly adopting FSC (Forest Stewardship Council) certification, opening access to ESG-sensitive markets and strengthening their position across categories like furniture, MDF boards, and value-added products.
For traders eyeing exposure to Vietnam’s industrial commodities, wood is a prime candidate — stable, ESG-compliant, and backed by sustained global demand.
4. Shrimp Are Swimming Ahead — But Regulations Are Evolving Fast
Vietnam’s seafood exports are making a comeback, led by shrimp. Between January and June 2025, shrimp exports to China (including Hong Kong) hit nearly USD595 million, up more than 80% year-on-year. This is the first time China has overtaken the U.S. as Vietnam’s largest shrimp market.
While this shift presents opportunities, it also signals the need for constant vigilance. Export success in seafood depends on tracking reopening trends, sanitary regulations, and non-tariff barriers. Any shift in these variables can quickly affect pricing or permissions — and affect traders caught mid-shipment.
5. Europe’s Compliance Wall Is Getting Higher
The EU is tightening standards across the board — from pesticide levels to origin tracing and cold-chain documentation. Vietnamese authorities have responded with new directives to prevent trans-shipment violations, but this also means longer lead times and uneven enforcement.
For high-compliance markets like the EU, this can translate to real operational risk. Delays, inconsistent customs clearance, or regulatory mismatches can lead to failed trades, spoiled goods, or sudden price volatility. Traders need to factor these risks into any Southeast Asia-focused strategy.
The Takeaway: Read Between the Export Lines
Vietnam’s export boom is real — and offers considerable upside. Coconuts have surged to USD7.26/kg in 2025, up from USD1.21 just three years ago. Shrimp and wood products are in high demand. But this isn’t a market where you can afford to trade on headlines alone.
Certification backlogs, inconsistent border enforcement, and rising ESG demands all introduce complexity into otherwise bullish sectors.
For traders, especially those dealing in agriculture, soft commodities, or futures tied to Vietnam’s performance, the real opportunity lies in spotting where the cracks appear beneath the glossy surface.
Disclaimer: This article reflects the observations of EBC Financial Group and all its global entities. It is not financial or investment advice. Trading in commodities and foreign exchange (FX) involves significant risk of loss, potentially exceeding your initial investment. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions, as EBC Financial Group and its entities are not liable for any damages arising from reliance on this information.
Disclaimer:
Investment involves risk. The content of this report is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product.
Publication date:
2025-08-04 07:43:12 (GMT)
